Today is the day - the Seattle Kraken will select a player from each of the 30 original teams in the NHL (Vegas gets a pass) at 8pm EST. While there have been a few articles of this nature out already, none of them have the advantage of applying our patented stat of GDV (goal differential value) to help optimize selections.
A player's GDV isn't the only number to weigh in choosing from the list of exposed players, though. Contracts will play a big part in the decision making, as cap hit and term will help define the direction Seattle wants to go in.
As for team building strategy, there are many options the club can go in. Most players available to the Kraken are at least 23 years of age, so it will be tough to start with a completely young, new club. One way to combat this is to select players to flip for trade, but since I am not in negotiations with other general managers I will not be doing such for the purpose of this exercise.
Another strategy, which seems feasible based off of available players, is to attempt to build a playoff contending team off the bat. This route, whether purposely done or not, worked very well for the Vegas Golden Knights in building and promoting their team in a new hockey city. This is the path I'll head down here, as I talk through each decision team-by-team.
If you wish to save some time and just see the final roster, lineup, and projections, feel free to skip to the end of the article.
*All Goal Differential Values are listed on a per-60 basis
Anaheim Ducks
Selection: Alex Volkov
Age: 23
Contract: 925k, 1 year (RFA)
Projected Overall GDV: -0.24
Projected Even-Strength GDV: -0.29
Projected Powerplay GDV: n/a
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Sonny Milano, Kevin Shattenkirk, Danton Heinen, Haydn Fleury, Anthony Stolarz
Volkov was one of the last selections made in this exercise, but is listed here first because we're going in alphabetical order. He is one of the few selected with a negative GDV, but the Ducks don't offer much and we're banking on Volkov having a little more room to grow at 23 years old and he's cheaper cap hit.
Arizona Coyotes
Selection: Lane Pederson
Age: 23
Contract: RFA
Projected Overall GDV: 0.27
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.32
Projected Powerplay GDV: n/a
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Dryden Hunt, Christian Fischer, Josef Korenar
As I stated above, there's not much in terms of youth available and Pederson showed enough in a small sample size to warrant a selection from Arizona. The Coyotes are slim-pickings here, so this was a relatively easy choice as Pederson will probably agree to a 2-way deal and start in the AHL.
Boston Bruins
Selection: Nick Ritchie
Age: 25
Contract: RFA
Projected Overall GDV: 0.29
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.16
Projected Powerplay GDV: 1.83
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Karson Kuhlman, Curtis Lazar, Connor Clifton
Clifton warrants some consideration here because there's limited right-handed defensemen available, as does Lazar due to his versatility, but Ritchie gets the nod here. If I told Bruins fans a year ago that Ritchie was exposed and selected in expansion, there would probably be no love lost. However, Ritchie played very well last season, and established himself as a huge net-front asset on the powerplay.
Buffalo Sabres
Selection: William Borgen
Age: 24
Contract: RFA
Projected Overall GDV: 0.27
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.46
Projected Powerplay GDV: n/a
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Jake McCabe (UFA), Colin Miller, Zemgus Girgensons
You could argue that McCabe, Miller, and Girgensons would all be better options to help the team off the bat, but Borgen is the selection due to his upside and contract status. Miller and Girgensons are slightly overpaid for what they do, and McCabe's due for a hefty raise after establishing himself as one of the better defensive defensemen in the league.
Calgary Flames
Selection: Mark Giordano
Age: 37
Contract: 6.75M, 1 Year (UFA)
Projected Overall GDV: -0.04
Projected Even-Strength GDV: -0.02
Projected Powerplay GDV: 0.82
Projected Shorthanded GDV: -1.09
Others Considered: Oliver Kylington
This is where the selections get interesting. Marketing the sport and getting your franchise acclimated to the city is a real thing, so plucking a big-name captain off a team's roster can prove to be very valuable. Giordano has been one of the better defensemen in the NHL over the past decade, and should provide the glue and leadership the team needs to hit the ground running.
Carolina Hurricanes
Selection: Jake Bean
Age: 23
Contract: RFA
Projected Overall GDV: -0.24
Projected Even-Strength GDV: -0.22
Projected Powerplay GDV: -0.65
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Nino Niederreiter, Morgan Geekie
Bean's GDV was not good in his first season in the NHL, so again we're taking into consideration his age, sample size, draft pedigree and contract status and taking a flier on him. It's no secret that Niederreiter is a bit of an analytics darling, but we made some other picks that prohibit taking on his contract.
Chicago Blackhawks
Selection: Nikita Zadorov
Age: 26
Contract: RFA
Projected Overall GDV: -0.22
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.11
Projected Powerplay GDV: n/a
Projected Shorthanded GDV: -3.78
Others Considered: Calvin de Haan
Zadorov projects to have solid even-strength numbers again this season, so he can be an asset in the right role. It was really a toss-up between he and de Haan, with de Haan's contract being the deterrent.
Colorado Avalanche
Selection: Joonas Donskoi
Age: 29
Contract: 3.9M, 2 Years (UFA)
Projected Overall GDV: -0.04
Projected Even-Strength GDV: -0.04
Projected Powerplay GDV: 1.79
Projected Shorthanded GDV: -1.89
Others Considered: Gabriel Landeskog (UFA), Kiefer Sherwood, Jacob MacDonald
Donskoi wasn't quite the even-strength player he has been in the past last season, but was strong enough on the powerplay to still be a really useful player. His GDV projections back him as a selection is used properly. There was strong consideration to attempting to negotiate with Landeskog here, but I find it tough to believe he'll want to land with a brand new team.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Selection: Kevin Stenlund
Age: 24
Contract: 1.05M, 1 Year (RFA)
Projected Overall GDV: -0.04
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.22
Projected Powerplay GDV: -1.40
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Kole Sherwood, Dean Kukan, Max Domi
Stenlund's a case of where GDV comes in handy. His even-strength numbers were impressive in a bottom-six role for Columbus most of last season, playing both right wing and center. Domi, who most believe will be Seattle's selection, was deployed in a middle-six role with much worse GDV results. Given this and their respective contracts, swinging on Stenlund seems to have much more upside.
Dallas Stars
Selection: Nick Caamano
Age: 22
Contract: RFA
Projected Overall GDV: 0.15
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.18
Projected Powerplay GDV: n/a
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Jamie Oleksiak (UFA), Blake Comeau
It sounds like the Kraken may have been able to negotiate a deal with Oleksiak, which is a smart move. Still, Caamano is one of the few 22 year-olds available and the blueline will be cramped with left-handed defensemen. Given his projected GDV, he would still be my selection here.
Detroit Red Wings
Selection: Troy Stecher
Age: 27
Contract: 1.7M, 1 Year (UFA)
Projected Overall GDV: 0.15
Projected Even-Strength GDV: -0.05
Projected Powerplay GDV: n/a
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Christian Djoos, Evgeny Svechnikov, Danny DeKeyser
That right-handed defenseman shortage? It's addressed right here. Stecher is a steady bottom-two pair defenseman that is almost a no-brainer selection from the Red Wings. His GDV is teammate adjusted, but perhaps a better team around him should improve his overall numbers.
Edmonton Oilers
Selection: Oscar Klefbom
Age: 28
Contract: 4.167M, 2 Years (UFA)
Projected Overall GDV: n/a
Projected Even-Strength GDV: n/a
Projected Powerplay GDV: n/a
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: James Neal, Mikko Koskinen
Whomever is selected from Edmonton will seem like a favor to them, so Klefbom becomes an interesting selection for more than one reason. First off, he is still recovering from shoulder surgery and his status for this upcoming season is in question (hence the "n/a" GDV). When healthy, he is a very good player, though, and could be a key piece on the backend. I am anticipating he does not play in 2021-2022, and therefore can occupy a spot on the long-term injury reserve list, providing some cap relief.
Florida Panthers
Selection: Chris Driedger
Age: 27
Contract: UFA
Projected Goals Saved above Expected per 60: 0.42
Others Considered: Lucas Wallmark, Frank Vatrano, Radko Gudas
It is reported that the Kraken have agreed to terms with Driedger, and that is the right move here. Granted it's only 35 games, but Driedger has posted top-10 GSAx/60 numbers for two straight seasons. You just won't find a player like that available often through any other avenue.
Los Angeles Kings
Selection: Blake Lizotte
Age: 23
Contract: 800k, 1 Year (RFA)
Projected Overall GDV: 0.10
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.11
Projected Powerplay GDV: n/a
Projected Shorthanded GDV: 0.15
Others Considered: Austin Wagner, Olli Maatta
The Kings have a slew of young centers in their system, which is probably why they viewed Lizotte as expendable. He's an easy selection here, as a 23 year-old, cost-controlled bottom-six center who is good both at even-strength and the penalty kill.
Minnesota Wild
Selection: Kaapo Kahkonen
Age: 24
Contract: 725k, 1 Year (RFA)
Projected Goals Saved above Expected per 60: -0.73
Others Considered: Nick Bjugstad, Carson Soucy, Victor Rask
Okay, so Kahkonen does not project well for next season. It's a weak goalie market in the expansion draft though, and we only have past statistics and aging curves to go off of. The aging curves for goalies are a little more staggered, as some of today's quality NHL starters didn't play their best until their late 20s. I like his contract here, and hope he can develop into a decent asset for the team.
Montreal Canadiens
Selection: Jonathan Drouin
Age: 26
Contract: 5.5M, 2 Years (UFA)
Projected Overall GDV: 0.28
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.07
Projected Powerplay GDV: 2.61
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Tomas Tatar (UFA), Brett Kulak, Carey Price
Landing a deal with Tatar would be ideal here, and Price is rightfully considered for marketing reasons despite being vastly overrated, but ultimately I went with Drouin here. It is unknown what exactly spurred his decision to step away from the team at the end of last season, but Drouin's offensive talent is unquestioned. If he plays next season, he'd be a welcome addition to the top-six. If not, he can be placed on LTIR like Klefbom.
Nashville Predators
Selection: Matt Duchene
Age: 30
Contract: 8M, 5 Years (UFA)
Projected Overall GDV: 0.28
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.34
Projected Powerplay GDV: 2.54
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Yakov Trenin, Calle Jarnkrok, Nick Cousins
The Predators are practically begging the Kraken to select one of their forwards, as they protected five defensemen. We oblige here, as Duchene is the biggest contract selected in this draft. The juice is worth the squeeze though, at least for the short-term, as his projected GDV numbers are some of the best among all available forwards.
New Jersey Devils
Selection: Nathan Bastian
Age: 23
Contract: 825k, 2 Years (RFA)
Projected Overall GDV: -0.22
Projected Even-Strength GDV: -0.18
Projected Powerplay GDV: n/a
Projected Shorthanded GDV: -0.87
Others Considered: Andreas Johnsson, Marian Studenic, Will Butcher
The grit and toughness crowd will love this pick, as Bastian was near the top of the league last year in hits per 60 minutes played. He also provides shorthanded value, however, and still has two years left on his entry-level deal. For these reasons, he is too enticing to pass up.
New York Islanders
Selection: Jordan Eberle
Age: 31
Contract: 5.5M, 3 Years (UFA)
Projected Overall GDV: 0.72
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.82
Projected Powerplay GDV: 0.47
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Thomas Hickey, Josh Bailey
Eberle was a surprise omission from the Isles' protection list, leaving Seattle a quality top-line winger to add to the team. His even-strength value is tops among all selections, and should be a key contributor in order to make an inaugural playoff push.
New York Rangers
Selection: Julien Gauthier
Age: 23
Contract: 775k, 1 Year (RFA)
Projected Overall GDV: 0.15
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.18
Projected Powerplay GDV: n/a
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Colin Blackwell
The Rangers' exposure list is pretty dismal, so it was a toss-up between Blackwell or Gauthier. Either one would likely start in the minors, so the younger Gauthier was the choice here.
Ottawa Senators
Selection: Evgeny Dadonov
Age: 32
Contract: 5M, 2 Years (UFA)
Projected Overall GDV: 0.13
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.05
Projected Powerplay GDV: 1.02
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Michael Amadio
In another win-now move, Dadonov is the selection from the Senators. Based off their exposure list, nothing else was really considered. This helped mold the direction of the team selected.
Philadelphia Flyers
Selection: James Van Riemsdyk
Age: 32
Contract: 7M, 2 Years (UFA)
Projected Overall GDV: 0.33
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.07
Projected Powerplay GDV: 3.21
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek
Van Riemsdyk has been an elite powerplay asset for years now, and his projected positive even-strength GDV justifies taking on his rather large two-year cap hit. JVR solidifies the top-six and first powerplay unit.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Selection: Marcus Pettersson
Age: 25
Contract: 4.025M, 4 Years (UFA)
Projected Overall GDV: -0.13
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.31
Projected Powerplay GDV: n/a
Projected Shorthanded GDV: -4.67
Others Considered: Frederick Gaudreau, Chad Ruhwedel, Mark Friedman, Casey DeSmith
Pettersson's shorthanded numbers aren't strong, but at even-strength, he is a bonafide top-four defenseman. Getting him with term helps stablize the blueline, which makes him the pick despite some pause on nabbing DeSmith in net.
San Jose Sharks
Selection: Ryan Donato
Age: 25
Contract: RFA
Projected Overall GDV: 0.15
Projected Even-Strength GDV: -0.25
Projected Powerplay GDV: 4.24
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Nicholas Meloche, Radim Simek, Alex True
San Jose's list doesn't offer much in terms of quality up front, but Donato is sort-of a one-trick pony with his powerplay effectiveness. For this reason, he earns a roster spot with limited even-strength usage.
St. Louis Blues
Selection: Vince Dunn
Age: 24
Contract: RFA
Projected Overall GDV: 0.01
Projected Even-Strength GDV: -0.17
Projected Powerplay GDV: 1.86
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Vladimir Tarasenko, Zach Sanford
Because we're not selecting and flipping assets in the trade market, Tarasenko is not the pick here. Dunn is valuable is his own right, and is worthy of a selection based on his powerplay ability alone.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Selection: Ondrej Palat
Age: 30
Contract: 5.3M, 1 Year (UFA)
Projected Overall GDV: 0.42
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.32
Projected Powerplay GDV: 1.86
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Alex Barre-Boulet, Yanni Gourde, Alex Killorn, Ross Colton
By protecting four defeensemen, the Lightning have exposed a flux of quality forwards at the Kraken's disposal. Rumors are circulating that Gourde may be the selection here, which would be a great pick. As would Killorn. Barre-Boulet and Colton will likely fill the role of the key departure here, who in this case is the true best player available in Palat.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Selection: Jared McCann
Age: 25
Contract: 2.94M, 1 Year (RFA)
Projected Overall GDV: 0.79
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.77
Projected Powerplay GDV: 1.79
Projected Shorthanded GDV: n/a
Others Considered: Travis Dermott, Pierre Engvall
The McCann trade was a head-scratcher for the Leafs, as the did it just to leave him unprotected. This basically walks him straight to Seattle, as the Kraken would acquire a huge asset both at even-strength and special teams. Oh, and did I mention that he is team-controlled? This is an obvious selection. (And no, Alex Kerfoot does not hit the GDV radar here.)
Vancouver Canucks
Selection: Braden Holtby
Age: 31
Contract: 4.3M, 1 Year (UFA)
Projected Goals Saved above Expected per 60: -0.28
Others Considered: Zack MacEwen, Jayce Hawryluk, Matthew Highmore
The skaters on Vancouver's exposure list leave a lot to be desired, so Holtby is the play here. This gives Driedger a veteran on a one-year deal to tandem with, and hopefully that solidifies the crease for a playoff push.
Washington Capitals
Selection: Nick jensen
Age: 30
Contract: 2.5M, 2 Years (UFA)
Projected Overall GDV: 0.14
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.30
Projected Powerplay GDV: n/a
Projected Shorthanded GDV: -1.35
Others Considered: Conor Sheary, Brenden Dillon, Vitek Vanecek
Sheary and Dillon deserve some consideration, but Jensen is the pick here to add another quality right-handed defenseman. We actually end with two consecutive additions to the right side, so let's get right to the other.
Winnipeg jets
Selection: Dylan DeMelo
Age: 28
Contract: 3M, 3 Years (UFA)
Projected Overall GDV: 0.24
Projected Even-Strength GDV: 0.39
Projected Powerplay GDV: n/a
Projected Shorthanded GDV: -1.05
Others Considered: Mason Appleton
If the Kraken select Appleton, it will be a fine selection. DeMelo gets the edge here because he can eat up big minutes on defense and do it very effectively. At 28 years-old, he should be primed throughout the duration of his 3-year deal.
Final Roster
Center
Matt Duchene
Jared McCann
Kevin Stenlund
Blake Lizotte
Lane Pederson
Left Wing
Ondrej Palat
James Van Riemsdyk
Jonathan Drouin
Nick Ritchie
Ryan Donato
Nick Caamano
Right Wing
Jordan Eberle
Evgeny Dadonov
Joonas Donskoi
Nathan Bastian
Alex Volkov
Julien Gauthier
Left Defense
Mark Giordano
Oscar Klefbom
Marcus Pettersson
Vince Dunn
Nikita Zadorov
Jake Bean
Right Defense
Dylan DeMelo
Nick Jensen
Troy Stecher
William Borgen
Goaltender
Chris Driedger
Braden Holtby
Kaapo Kahkonen