Updated: Oct 14, 2022
We're asking for your subscription to our website for the 2022-2023 NHL season, so it's only fair we tell you why.
My name is Jason Moser and I started PuckLuck.com back in 2020, after years of working with statistics to project fantasy hockey and game scores. I'm from Buffalo, NY, grew up a Buffalo Sabres fan, and fell in love with the sport at about six years old.
Now I'm 33 years old, a former Sabres writer, and recently left my high-level accounting job to focus solely on growing the website and the company. Needless to say, I need a source of income to be able to do this.
The cool thing about PuckLuck is that we all benefit together from your subscription. The more subscribers, the more time and resources I can put into the site. In this case, your subscriptions together can equal an employee to cover your favorite team for our website, or more intuitive tools you can use to make your betting process easier.
I've already brought on D.J. Mitchell to aid with daily fantasy and player prop advice, and he deserves to benefit from this as well.
The major goal in mind for PuckLuck.com is to be your one-stop resource for the new-aged way of following the NHL. If you're in a legal sports betting state or province, then you can find plenty of pages to help you with betting decisions. If you're into daily fantasy sports, then you'll be able to find DFS rankings and advice. If you're just a casual fan, then you can follow our team pages and playoff projections. Whatever you need, we have it!
So what sets us apart from any competition? For one, we're the only betting analysis site you'll find that focuses on the NHL. Many "picks sites" or "handicappers" will mix in NHL sports betting picks once in awhile while really focusing on the NFL or NBA. Not us. Our methodology revolves solely around the NHL.
Also, we're the only site in the NHL analytics community that actually projects game scores. You'll find various smart people in the public domain put out win probabilities for each team, but no site actually projects the actual game score to help you with spreads and game total over/unders.
The big thing here is trust. How can you trust us? Well to put it simply, we're transparent. There will be ups and downs, but, unlike your infamous social media touts, we have nothing to hide. Our methods are tried and true. Our picks are backed by numbers.
Here's the pulling back of the curtain so you know what basically happens behind the scenes (feel free to skip ahead if it gets too technical for your liking):
I take raw data compiled by our friends at evolving-hockey.com, and use statistical modeling to assign a goals-for and goals-against value for each player per minute played on the ice
These statistical values are unique to PuckLuck, and we commonly refer to them on the site as GFV (goals-for value) and GAV (goals-against value)
Subtracting GAV from GFV gets you GDV (goal-differential value), which is the expected goal differential a team has when that player is on the ice
I plug in each team's lineup every day to then compile a full team GDV, including values at even-strength, on the powerplay, and shorthanded
This is then cross-referenced with the projections from the opposition along with a few other adjustments, and expected goal values are determined for each team each game
It was a daunting set up at first, but the basic concept has withstood testing and numerous adjustments over the years and proven to be profitable at a professional level. Our PuckLuck Picks based on these numbers returned 7.86% on investment last season, while going approximately 63% on the moneyline, 59% on the spread (puckline), and 56% on the game totals.
There's a lot included in the subscription plans this season, but first I'd like to share where this is all headed in my mind. Like I said, we're covering the NHL through a new-age lens. You're starting to see analytics incorporated into hockey broadcasts, albeit at an entry level. You also are probably annoyed by all of the sportsbook advertisements, but nothing in major media coverage actually addresses the betting and fantasy part of the sport.
The idea is to evolve into a media company that covers the game through the betting and fantasy lens, so that you can enjoy the sport with content creators and media personalities right there with you on our site.
The analytics are the foundation, but there's so much more room to grow!
Okay, time to get down to your subscription selection. I wanted things to be flexible for you, since I realize everyone has various interest levels and different means of income. Here's the breakdown:
Lucky Pucker $269.99/year
We're offering three tiers of monthly subscription levels, along with a year-long all-access subscription. All plans will get you the PuckLuck Pick of the Day, the new Underdog Pick of the Day, and Player Props, so if that's all you're looking for then the Rookie plan is for you.
If you want all of the numbers-based PuckLuck Picks like we've offered in the past, then you can get that with the Pro plan. You'll also have access to our PuckLuck Primer blog each morning to get you set for the day, as well as our daily fantasy projections and player cards.
V.I.P. and Lucky Pucker plan subscribers get it all, including our new daily betting picks based on trends. We're tracking recent trends on the moneyline, puckline, and overs and unders so that we can roll with teams while they're hot and fade them while they're cold. You'll also have complete fantasy hockey access, and downloadable team and player projections each day to help you track and build your own models, lineups, and strategy.
Lucky Puckers will get 25% off for paying upfront for the entire year, which is the equivalent of three free months.
The goal in the pricing of these plans is to be affordable to the common bettor. Think of how much you wager each day and how much more you can return using one of our plans. The Rookie Plan averages out to about $0.33 a day, the Pro plan $0.67, and V.I.P. $1. After a successful season, this will seem like a steal.
So, which one will it be? Sign up for your plan now here.
If you have any questions, you can email Jason at firstname.lastname@example.org