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Preseason Projections

Comparing some of the top public NHL analytics sites and models

PACE

PL No Text.png
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hockeyviz.jfif

AVG

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58

81

79.7

84.3

82.9

80.2

82.9

80

75.3

86.7

81.4

ANA

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70

60

71.4

66.8

70.4

62.4

67.2

66

65.8

76.7

67.4

ARI

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135

113

103.9

101.7

100.7

104

107.9

108

102.1

95.5

104.1

BOS

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91

73

83.1

78.5

80.1

76.3

75.6

76

74.2

86.3

78.1

BUF

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113

107

102.2

109.6

103.6

103.3

104.4

99

109.2

96

103.8

CAR

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59

64

78.9

78.9

78.7

76.6

80.6

76

78.8

81.3

77.1

CBJ

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90

102

99.3

109.7

106.2

107.6

109.3

104

108.2

93.6

104.4

CGY

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59

69

58.8

69.8

74.1

74.4

63.5

62

72.4

81.2

69.5

CHI

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109

121

107.2

108.1

107.2

106.3

110

105

118

95.8

108.7

COL

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108

92

94.1

90.3

93.8

97.8

86.8

92

91.7

92

92.3

DAL

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82

82

87.2

84.7

84.6

82.6

87.1

87

67.2

89

83.5

DET

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109

99

100.3

105.5

98.4

101

104.3

97

104.5

94.6

100.5

EDM

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92

103

109.2

103.8

106.7

106.4

108.2

108

107.7

97.1

105.6

FLA

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104

100

93.5

96

92.5

92.6

93.4

86

87.5

95.6

93

LAK

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103

98

105.2

100.1

102

105.5

103.6

100

103.7

96.1

101.6

MIN

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68

78

74.1

72.8

72.6

73.8

69.8

70

71.7

82.6

73.9

MTL

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112

75

91.5

87

97.4

90.4

96.5

93

72.7

88.3

88

NJD

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92

98

97

94.7

98.1

96.3

97

96

91.2

93.6

95.8

NSH

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93

90

88.3

88.6

91.3

89.1

83.6

102

94.4

92.2

91.1

NYI

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107

116

91.1

100.5

92.1

95.4

92

103

106.5

94.4

99

NYR

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86

77

91.2

87.4

85

87.8

88.9

89

81.6

89.8

86.4

OTT

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75

72

69

76.4

79.4

76.5

76.2

70

67.1

81.5

74.2

PHI

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91

103

89.4

100.3

100.3

99

92.9

98

103

96

98

PIT

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100

84

92.8

87

84.3

87.2

94.7

85

71.7

84.4

85.7

SEA

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60

64

81.4

78.7

76.3

76.9

72

82

74.1

87.4

77

SJS

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81

90

95.4

95.8

93

92.2

89.2

93

107.1

88.3

93.8

STL

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98

107

102.2

104

101

103.8

100.7

101

111.2

97.9

103.2

TBL

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111

96

106.5

106.1

106.4

111.6

109.8

98

106.6

91

103.6

TOR

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84

109

95.9

91.8

88.6

91.7

94.5

98

96.1

95.7

95.7

VAN

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111

106

90

97.7

95.8

93.6

97.8

90

100.5

90.7

95.8

VGK

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94

105

83.3

89.7

85.1

88.3

83.1

97

91.3

92.2

90.6

WPG

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80

105

98.8

101.3

93.8

97.1

93.4

104

99.2

97.6

98.9

WSH

MAPE*

13.03%

12.20%

12.33%

12.25%

12.35%

11.31%

13.15%

14.44%

14.91%

RANK

6

2

4

3

5

1

7

8

9

MAD**

11.63

10.65

10.51

10.56

10.6

9.8

11.56

12.64

12.69

RANK

7

5

2

3

4

1

6

8

9

IQR***

20

17

16

21

20

17

24

23

21

RANK

5

3

1

7

4

2

9

8

6

* MAPE is the mean absolute percentage error that measures the percentage difference between a model's projection and the actual point pace

** MAD is the mean absolute deviation that measures the numerical difference between a model's projection and the actual point pace

*** IQR is the interquartile range that shows the variance of a model's projection and the actual point pace after removing any significant outliers (below the 25th percentile and above the 75th percentile)

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