
Preseason Projections
Comparing some of the top public NHL analytics sites and models
PACE
AVG

58
81
79.7
84.3
82.9
80.2
82.9
80
75.3
86.7
81.4
ANA

70
60
71.4
66.8
70.4
62.4
67.2
66
65.8
76.7
67.4
ARI

135
113
103.9
101.7
100.7
104
107.9
108
102.1
95.5
104.1
BOS

91
73
83.1
78.5
80.1
76.3
75.6
76
74.2
86.3
78.1
BUF

113
107
102.2
109.6
103.6
103.3
104.4
99
109.2
96
103.8
CAR

59
64
78.9
78.9
78.7
76.6
80.6
76
78.8
81.3
77.1
CBJ

90
102
99.3
109.7
106.2
107.6
109.3
104
108.2
93.6
104.4
CGY

59
69
58.8
69.8
74.1
74.4
63.5
62
72.4
81.2
69.5
CHI

109
121
107.2
108.1
107.2
106.3
110
105
118
95.8
108.7
COL

108
92
94.1
90.3
93.8
97.8
86.8
92
91.7
92
92.3
DAL

82
82
87.2
84.7
84.6
82.6
87.1
87
67.2
89
83.5
DET

109
99
100.3
105.5
98.4
101
104.3
97
104.5
94.6
100.5
EDM

92
103
109.2
103.8
106.7
106.4
108.2
108
107.7
97.1
105.6
FLA

104
100
93.5
96
92.5
92.6
93.4
86
87.5
95.6
93
LAK

103
98
105.2
100.1
102
105.5
103.6
100
103.7
96.1
101.6
MIN

68
78
74.1
72.8
72.6
73.8
69.8
70
71.7
82.6
73.9
MTL

112
75
91.5
87
97.4
90.4
96.5
93
72.7
88.3
88
NJD

92
98
97
94.7
98.1
96.3
97
96
91.2
93.6
95.8
NSH

93
90
88.3
88.6
91.3
89.1
83.6
102
94.4
92.2
91.1
NYI

107
116
91.1
100.5
92.1
95.4
92
103
106.5
94.4
99
NYR

86
77
91.2
87.4
85
87.8
88.9
89
81.6
89.8
86.4
OTT

75
72
69
76.4
79.4
76.5
76.2
70
67.1
81.5
74.2
PHI

91
103
89.4
100.3
100.3
99
92.9
98
103
96
98
PIT

100
84
92.8
87
84.3
87.2
94.7
85
71.7
84.4
85.7
SEA

60
64
81.4
78.7
76.3
76.9
72
82
74.1
87.4
77
SJS

81
90
95.4
95.8
93
92.2
89.2
93
107.1
88.3
93.8
STL

98
107
102.2
104
101
103.8
100.7
101
111.2
97.9
103.2
TBL

111
96
106.5
106.1
106.4
111.6
109.8
98
106.6
91
103.6
TOR

84
109
95.9
91.8
88.6
91.7
94.5
98
96.1
95.7
95.7
VAN

111
106
90
97.7
95.8
93.6
97.8
90
100.5
90.7
95.8
VGK

94
105
83.3
89.7
85.1
88.3
83.1
97
91.3
92.2
90.6
WPG

80
105
98.8
101.3
93.8
97.1
93.4
104
99.2
97.6
98.9
WSH
MAPE*
13.03%
12.20%
12.33%
12.25%
12.35%
11.31%
13.15%
14.44%
14.91%
RANK
6
2
4
3
5
1
7
8
9
MAD**
11.63
10.65
10.51
10.56
10.6
9.8
11.56
12.64
12.69
RANK
7
5
2
3
4
1
6
8
9
IQR***
20
17
16
21
20
17
24
23
21
RANK
5
3
1
7
4
2
9
8
6
* MAPE is the mean absolute percentage error that measures the percentage difference between a model's projection and the actual point pace
​
** MAD is the mean absolute deviation that measures the numerical difference between a model's projection and the actual point pace
​
*** IQR is the interquartile range that shows the variance of a model's projection and the actual point pace after removing any significant outliers (below the 25th percentile and above the 75th percentile)