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PuckLuck Primer 11/16/23: In The Model We Trust

Well here we are again, basking in last night's glory after another HUGE night for our PuckLuck Picks. Yesterday I went over the improvements to the model that led to a 12.35 unit profit, and we followed that up by netting another 13.29 units!


Yes, you read that right. 25.64 units in two days. Not every day will be that profitable, of course, but it's a validating start after some successful testing to the new adjustments.


If you're not already subscribed and interested in our PuckLuck Picks, it's more than just the Pick of the Day where we list a suggested bet. We also show how big of an edge on the sportsbooks there is, our suggested bet percentages (amount), and expected profit since not all bets are created equal.


I'll remind everyone that the investment in the site is not only a profitable decision on your part, but helps fuel that hard work D.J. and I do and helps us improve things going forward. You can become a "Pro" subscriber and access these PuckLuck Picks for under 67 cents a day.


We have an overseas game today in Sweden, with eight other games to follow. Let's get into today's edges with a FREE preview of the early game:

Team

Projected Starter

Projected Goals-For

Win Probability

Sportsbook Odds

Implied Win Probability

Edge



James Reimer

3.41

42.90%

+102

49.50%




Joonas Korpisalo

3.78

54.40%

-122

54.95%


As much as I'd love an edge on either team in the first game today, this is a classic case of if you ignore this and bet either side you're just donating your money in the long run. It's important to play the odds, which also takes the over out of the running - despite the highly-projected output - since the consensus on over 6.5 is sitting around -140.


Stay off this one, as there's plenty more action tonight.

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