Between the Lines: NHL Betting Picks & Projections | October 11, 2025
- Jason Moser
- Oct 11
- 5 min read
Saturday's 16-game marathon slate is loaded with afternoon action, divisional rivalries, and star power across every time zone.
Today's action kicks off early with a matinee clash in Winnipeg before rolling through a stacked 7:00 PM ET window featuring eight simultaneous games. The PuckLuck model has identified exceptional puckline value across the slate, with six spreads showing 100%+ edges and modified Kelly ratings above 16%. The top play offers a 21.32% modified Kelly rating - the highest ROI opportunity of the early season.
Today's Action | October 11, 2025
EARLY START (1:30 PM ET)
LAK @ WPG - Kings visit Jets in afternoon matchup
AFTERNOON WINDOW (4:00 PM ET)
STL @ CGY - Blues travel to Calgary after opening night loss
EASTERN CONFERENCE PRIME (7:00 PM ET)
BUF @ BOS - Sabres visit Bruins; Swayman in net
PHI @ CAR - Hurricanes home opener vs. struggling Flyers
MTL @ CHI - Canadiens visit United Center
TOR @ DET - Maple Leafs face Red Wings in centennial matchup
OTT @ FLA - Senators challenge defending champions
WSH @ NYI - Capitals visit Islanders; Schaefer's second game
NYR @ PIT - Rangers seek revenge after opening night shutout
NJD @ TBL - Devils-Lightning goalie duel
CENTRAL/WESTERN (8:00-10:00 PM)
CBJ @ MIN - Blue Jackets visit Wild
UTA @ NSH - Mammoth's first visit to Nashville
DAL @ COL - Stars-Avalanche in Denver
VAN @ EDM - Canucks visit Oilers in Battle of Alberta
VGK @ SEA - Knights travel to Seattle
ANA @ SJS - Ducks face Sharks; Askarov debut
Key Factors
Afternoon Hockey: Early 1:30 PM start in Winnipeg catches value - sharps often slow to adjust to matinee lines
Goalie Showcase: Hellebuyck, Swayman, Andersen, Vasilevskiy, Bobrovsky, and Saros all confirmed
Revenge Spots: Rangers return to Pittsburgh after opening night 3-0 shutout loss
Schaefer Watch: No. 1 pick plays second NHL game after debut Thursday
Askarov Debut: Former top prospect makes first start for San Jose
Puckline Paradise: Books offering +160 to +215 on spreads where our model sees massive value
Game of the Night: Capitals @ Islanders
The Islanders host their home opener with Matthew Schaefer looking to build on his NHL debut from Thursday. Logan Thompson gets the start for Washington against Ilya Sorokin in a quality goaltending matchup. The Capitals bring offensive firepower with Alex Ovechkin hunting goals in his pursuit of Wayne Gretzky's record.
PuckLuck Projection: WSH 3.10 - NYI 2.82 (Total: 5.92)
Washington projects slightly ahead, but here's where it gets interesting: our model sees this as a close, competitive game - yet the sportsbooks are offering +215 odds on the Capitals -1.5 puckline. That's plus-money on a spread for a team our model gives the edge to.
This represents our highest modified Kelly rating of the entire slate at 21.32%, with a 118.7% edge. The combination of plus-odds puckline value and a 62.57% confidence rating creates exceptional ROI potential.
Want to know the exact breakdown of why this puckline offers so much value compared to the moneyline? The full analysis is in today's infographic below. Want access to all of our edges and real-time updates? Subscribe to PuckLuck+
