Between the Lines: October 27, 2025 NHL Betting Picks & Projections

Two-game Monday: Crosby's red-hot Penguins host St. Louis on NHLN, then Boston's value shines in Ottawa.

Sometimes less is more. Tonight's lean 2-game slate features Sidney Crosby riding a ridiculous heater - five goals in five games - as Pittsburgh welcomes St. Louis for NHL Network's Monday showcase. Then Boston faces off in Ottawa at 7:30, where the books have handed us a gift: the Bruins at +145 despite our model saying they should win nearly half the time. When you've only got two games to work with, at least they're offering real opportunities.

What's On Tap: Monday Night Double-Dip

NHLN Showcase (7:00 PM ET):

• St. Louis @ Pittsburgh - Blues visit PPG Paints Arena where Crosby's on fire

Divisional Late Start (7:30 PM ET):

• Boston @ Ottawa - Bruins carry underdog value despite projection saying otherwise

The Backdrop:

Crosby just passed Mario Lemieux (1,895 points) to become Pittsburgh's all-time leading scorer with 1,896 career points. He's also two points away from joining an exclusive club - just nine players in NHL history have hit 1,700. Oh, and he's doing this at 38 years old in his 21st season. Sid the Kid has nine points in his last five games as he turns back the clock. Pittsburgh has earned nine of their last 10 possible points in the standings - their best start since 2019-20.

Meanwhile, Boston's quietly solid but getting disrespected by the market. They're road dogs in Ottawa despite Jeremy Swayman bringing elite goaltending and the Bruins showing they can win anywhere. Ottawa counters with Leevi Merilainen, a young goalie still finding his footing.

No back-to-backs tonight. Fresh legs all around. Just two games, but both worth digging into.

Want to see where our model finds the strongest edges tonight? 👇

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NHL Betting Picks for October 27, 2025

NHLN's Monday Night: St. Louis @ Pittsburgh (7:00 PM)

Crosby's recapturing the hockey world - not just for Pittsburgh's success, but because at 38, he's putting up numbers that make you forget he's been doing this for two decades. The Penguins are rolling, and it's a game you can catch if you have NHL Network.

What The Numbers Say:

STL: 2.83 goals | PIT: 3.05 goals

Projected Total: 5.88

St. Louis comes in at -125 to win on the road, which implies about 55.6% probability. Our model? Pittsburgh at 53.6%. So the ML isn't screaming value, although it is there.

But check the total: The books are posting 6.5. We're projecting 5.88. That's an 5% edge on the UNDER.

Why This Plays Defense:

Joel Hofer starts for St. Louis. When he's locked in, the Blues can frustrate anyone. Pittsburgh counters with Tristan Jarry, who just made 34 saves against Florida and looks comfortable after a rough 2024-2025 season. Both teams have defensive structure when they need it.

Here's the thing - Crosby's run is real, but his linemate Rickard Rakell is out long-term after undergoing surgery on his hand. Rakell had eight points in seven games before leaving Saturday's contest early against Columbus. He's a big part of the Penguins' attack. While he's out, they're going to have to win with balanced scoring and solid goaltending, not track meets.

St. Louis isn't some offensive juggernaut either. They grind, they defend, they try to steal games with timely goals. Hofer versus Jarry, both playing well, in a game where neither team needs to run-and-gun? That's how you stay under 6.5.

Our confidence rating sits at 65% - that's legit. When the model projects 5.98 and Vegas gives you 6.5, you've got cushion. Even if one team finds four goals, the other needs three to push it over. That's asking a lot from two teams playing structured hockey.

The Play: I'm eyeing the UNDER, but with caution. Pittsburgh's unproven young roster can yield volatile results. Still, 5% edge at 65% confidence? That's workable.

The Real Value: Boston @ Ottawa (7:30 PM)

This is where tonight gets interesting. Boston's sitting at +145 to win as road underdogs. Ottawa's -175 to defend home ice. And our model says... wait, what?

Boston: 48.8% win probability

Ottawa: 51.2% win probability

You're telling me a team with a 48.8% chance to win is getting +145 odds? Let's do the math: +145 implies just 40.8% probability. That's an 8% edge and the biggest gap on tonight's card.

Why Boston's Getting Disrespected:

Ottawa's at home. They're the younger, hungrier team trying to establish themselves. Leevi Merilainen gets the start - just his second of the season. He allowed seven goals to the Buffalo Sabres in his first one, so the young netminder isn't exactly off to a hot start. TI'm not sure what the books are buying.

On the other end, Swayman has reverted more to the version we've seen prior to last season. He's giving Boston a chance every night, with a .910 save percentage. The Bruins' structure travels. Their depth scoring shows up on the road. And they're facing a goalie who's still developing, not some brick wall.

The Total Angle:

Our projection: 5.96 goals. Vegas total: 5.5. That's an 8% edge on the OVER, though the confidence sits lower at 55%.

Here's the read: Ottawa will push offense at home. They want to prove themselves. Boston will have to counter-punch and not necessarily sit back in a defensive shell. Swayman can hold the fort, but if Ottawa gets two or three, the Bruins have the firepower to answer. This feels like a 4-2 or 4-3 game, and either way, that clears 5.5.

Where The Money Goes:

If I'm picking one play from tonight, it's Boston ML at +145. When you're getting nearly 1.5-to-1 on a team that should be closer to a pick'em, that's exploitable. Yeah, the confidence rating isn't sky-high, but 8% edge overcomes that.

If you want same-game parlay action, pair the Boston ML with the BOS/OTT OVER 5.5. That gives you the underdog value plus the scoring angle in the same game.

The Pittsburgh UNDER? It's there if you like it, but I'm not dying on that hill.

PLAYER PROPS TO CONSIDER

Add these October 27, 2025 props to your NHL betting picks card for tonight's action

ANYTIME GOALSCORER: Filip Hallander (+475)

The Case: We've seen the Crosby effect lift many little-known players in the past, and the 25-year-old Hallander is next in line to ride the captain's coattails. Hallander is shooting at a higher rate than Crosby and Bryan Rust - his projected linemates - and is 7th on his team in individual expected goals without the correlation. If you want a quality big swing, this is it.

POINT PROP: Colton Parayko 1+ Points (+150)

The Case: Parayko's offensive metrics are somewhat surprisingly really good to start the season. The big defenseman ranks in the 93rd percentile in even-strength offense, per PuckLuck's WAR model. Considering we have his odds at 56% of recording a point, +150 is just too good of value to pass up.

SHOTS ON GOAL: Jake Sanderson 3+ Shots (+115)

The Case: The Bruins are giving up the 2nd-most shots per game in the NHL, making Sanderson - among other Senators - a good value bet tonight. Ottawa's star defenseman registered 3 shots on goal in each of the first 4 games of the season, but hasn't gotten back there in the last 5. Given how much Boston is giving up, this is a get-right spot for Sanderson.

Monday's Allocation

The Headline: Boston's underdog value is tonight's story

The Plays:

1. Boston ML (+145) - 8% edge, best value on the board

2. BOS/OTT OVER 5.5 (-125) - 8% edge, scoring environment

3. STL/PIT UNDER 6.5 (114) - 5% edge if you want NHLN action

How I'd Split It:

60% on Boston ML - that's the play with real meat on it. 25% on BOS/OTT OVER to double-dip in that game. 15% on props or skip the Pittsburgh total entirely unless you're confident in the defensive matchup.

Two-game slates are weird. You can't diversify much, so you have to pick your spots carefully. Tonight, Boston's getting handed to us on a silver platter. The books think Ottawa at home is a bigger deal than who is in the net. I'll fade that all day.

Line Movement Alert:

If Boston moves to +135 or tighter, the edge shrinks but doesn't disappear. Anything under +130 and you're losing the premium. The OVER moving from 5.5 to 6.0 cuts the value but keeps it playable. Pittsburgh UNDER moving to 6.0 would actually increase the edge - unlikely though.

Check your book right before game time. With only two games, even a half-point shift matters more than on a full slate.

Follow @PuckLuckDotCom for lineup updates and any late-breaking news.

All projections and edges are calculated using PuckLuck's proprietary model based on current roster composition, recent performance, and situational factors. Confidence levels reflect sample size reliability rather than specific percentages. These are probability-based recommendations for portfolio optimization, not guaranteed outcomes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.