Between the Lines: NHL Betting Picks & Projections | October 9, 2025
- Jason Moser
- Oct 9
- 4 min read
The NHL's opening week continues with a monster 14-game Thursday slate featuring two of the most anticipated moments of the young season.
Today's action includes Matthew Schaefer making his highly-anticipated debut as the No. 1 overall pick, and Jonathan Toews' emotional return to Winnipeg after a two-year absence. The PuckLuck model has identified multiple double-digit edges across tonight's slate, including a 20.2% edge on one total and several pucklines offering full value.
Today's Action | October 9, 2025
EASTERN CONFERENCE (7:00 PM ET)
CHI @ BOS - Blackhawks visit Boston for Bruins' home opener
NYR @ BUF - Rangers face Sabres with Shesterkin in net
NJD @ CAR - Markstrom makes season debut in Carolina
MTL @ DET - Canadiens visit Red Wings on centennial celebration
PHI @ FLA - Defending champs host struggling Flyers defense
NYI @ PIT - Schaefer debut: No. 1 pick faces Crosby at 18 years old
OTT @ TBL - Ullmark vs. Vasilevskiy goalie duel
WESTERN CONFERENCE (8:00-10:00 PM ET)
CBJ @ NSH - Blue Jackets on road to open season
MIN @ STL - Wild without Brodin; Haight makes NHL debut
DAL @ WPG - Toews returns: Hometown hero's comeback after 2 years
UTA @ COL - Utah's first trip to Denver as the Mammoth
ANA @ SEA - Kraken home opener vs. rebuilding Ducks
VGK @ SJS - Golden Knights visit Sharks
CGY @ VAN - Flames head to Vancouver after stunning comeback victory
Key Factors
Matthew Schaefer debut: The 18-year-old defenseman becomes the youngest No. 1 pick to debut since Nathan MacKinnon, facing Pittsburgh's Hall of Fame forwards immediately
Toews' emotional return: The three-time Stanley Cup champion plays his first NHL game since April 2023 in front of his hometown crowd
Minnesota depleted: Wild missing Jonas Brodin (upper body) and Mats Zuccarello (IR); rookie Hunter Haight debuts
Goalies confirmed: Bobrovsky (FLA), Sorokin (NYI), Markstrom (NJD), Vasilevskiy (TBL), Hellebuyck (WPG), and Binnington (STL) all starting
Florida firepower: Panthers averaging 3.78 projected goals at home against a Flyers defense that allowed 3.5+ goals per game last season
Game of the Night: Islanders @ Penguins
Pittsburgh enters riding momentum from a 3-0 shutout of the Rangers on opening night. Justin Brazeau scored twice in his Penguins debut, and Tristan Jarry looks sharp early. But tonight is about Matthew Schaefer.
The first defenseman chosen No. 1 by the Islanders since Denis Potvin in 1973, Schaefer will be paired against Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Erik Karlsson - a baptism by fire for any rookie, let alone an 18-year-old making his professional debut.
Mathew Barzal returns for New York after missing time since February, giving the Islanders offensive balance. Ilya Sorokin faces Jarry in what should be a high-event game.
PuckLuck Projection: NYI 3.34 - PIT 2.85 (Total: 6.19)
The books have this total at 5.5, and our model projects 6.19 - creating a 12.5% edge on the OVER. But there's a significantly better betting opportunity hiding in the puckline market, as the graphic below reveals.
Pittsburgh's home opener narrative is priced into the moneyline, but the actual goal differential projection tells a different story about value.
As for the best values of the night, the PuckLuck model has plenty conjured up. Check out the graphic below: Want access to all of our edges and real-time updates? Subscribe to PuckLuck+
