Calder Smoke: Who Will Win the NHL's Rookie of the Year?
The list of NHL rookies expected to receive extensive playing time this season is a bit longer than usual, with no clear-cut frontrunner to win the league's rookie of the year. This leads to varying odds from the sportsbooks, with room for plenty of value bets. It's time with peel back the curtain on who really has a chance to win the award.
Recent History
2021-2022 **82-game season**
PLAYER | TEAM | POS | VOTE % | AGE | G | A | PTS | W | GAA | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Moritz Seider | DET | D | 95% | 20 | 7 | 43 | 50 | | | |
Trevor Zegras | ANA | C | 61% | 20 | 23 | 38 | 61 | | | |
Michael Bunting | TOR | W | 45% | 26 | 23 | 40 | 63 | | | |
Lucas Raymond | DET | W | 26% | 19 | 23 | 34 | 57 | | | |
Jeremy Swayman | BOS | G | 11% | 23 | | | | 23 | 2.41 | .914 |
2020-2021 **56-game season**
PLAYER | TEAM | POS | VOTE % | AGE | G | A | PTS | W | GAA | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | W | 100% | 23 | 27 | 24 | 51 | | | |
Jason Robertson | DAL | W | 69% | 21 | 17 | 28 | 45 | | | |
Alex Nedeljkovic | CAR | G | 39% | 25 | | | | 15 | 1.90 | .932 |
Josh Norris | OTT | C | 18% | 21 | 17 | 18 | 35 | | | |
Igor Shesterkin | NYR | G | 17% | 25 | | | | 16 | 2.62 | .916 |
2019-2020 **70(ish)-game season**
PLAYER | TEAM | POS | VOTE % | AGE | G | A | PTS | W | GAA | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cale Makar | COL | D | 90% | 21 | 12 | 38 | 50 | | | |
Quinn Hughes | VAN | D | 79% | 20 | 8 | 45 | 53 | | | |
Dominik Kubalik | CHI | W | 33% | 24 | 30 | 16 | 46 | | | |
Adam Fox | NYR | D | 25% | 21 | 8 | 34 | 42 | | | |
Elvis Merzlikins | CBJ | G | 13% | 25 | | | | 13 | 2.35 | .923 |
Other recent winners:
2018-2019: Elias Petterson, VAN, C
2017-2018: Mathew Barzal, NYI, C
2016-2017: Auston Matthews, TOR, C
2015-2016: Artemi Panarin, CHI, W
2014-2015: Aaron Ekblad, FLA, D
2013-2014: Nathan MacKinnon, COL, C
2012-2013: Jonathan Huberdeau, FLA, C
What criteria can we gather from the last 10 seasons of Calder voting?
Five winners were centers, three were defensemen, and two were wingers
Zero goalies won the award
All five centers were first round picks, with four of the five being top-five picks
The three defensemen were top-six picks in the NHL draft
The only wingers to win were 23+ year old Russians who had KHL scoring success
Forward winners averaged 0.87 points per game
Defenseman winners averaged 0.66 points per game
This Season's Rookies
Here's the list of rookies who have the potential to receive extensive playing time this season:
ANA: Mason McTavish
ARI: Nathan Smith, Jack McBain, Dylan Guenther
BOS: Oskar Steen
BUF: Owen Power, Jack Quinn, Eric Comrie, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, JJ Peterka
CGY: Jakob Pelletier, Connor Zary
CHI: Alex Vlasic, Lukas Reichel
CBJ: Kent Johnson
DAL: Riley Tufte
EDM: Stuart Skinner, Phillip Broberg
LAK: Jordan Spence
MIN: Marco Rossi, Calen Addison
MTL: Juraj Slafkovsky, Justin Barron, Jordan Harris, Corey Schueneman, Mattias Norlinder
NJD: Simon Nemec, Alex Holtz, Fabian Zetterlund
NYR: Vitali Kravtsov, Nils Lundkvist, Zac Jones
OTT: Jake Sanderson, Shane Pinto, Lassi Thomson
PHI: Felix Sandstrom, Bobby Brink
SJS: William Eklund
SEA: Matty Beniers, Shane Wright
STL: Scott Perunovich, Jake Neighbours
TOR: Nicholas Robertson
VAN: Spencer Martin
VGK: Logan Thompson
WPG: Cole Perfetti, Kristian Reichel, Dylan Samberg, Ville Heinola
The list narrows down extensively, after applying our criteria from the last 10 seasons. Here's what we're left with, after finding who closely fits the criteria based on our projections:
ANA: Mason McTavish
BUF: Owen Power, Jack Quinn
CHI: Lukas Reichel
CBJ: Kent Johnson
MIN: Marco Rossi
MTL: Juraj Slafkovsky
NJD: Simon Nemec
NYR: Vitali Kravtsov
OTT: Jake Sanderson
SJS: William Eklund
SEA: Matty Beniers, Shane Wright
WPG: Cole Perfetti
That's 14 contenders by our count for the Calder Trophy. If you do believe a goalie has a chance this season, Logan Thompson is the best bet if he runs with the Vegas Golden Knights' starting job. Otherwise, lets dive a little deeper into these 14.
The Candidates
With opportunity and ice-time baked into our projections, we're able to put a percentage on who meets our criteria the best based on position, draft status, and projected points per game. From there, we adjust the probabilities weighing in the criteria of all 14 candidates and are able to convert that probability into American betting odds.
Mason McTavish, ANA
Position: C 50%
Drafted: 1st rd. 3rd overall 100%
Projected points per game: 0.48 55%
Criteria fit: 68%
Adjusted Calder probability: 9.88%
Calder odds: +900
Owen Power, BUF
Position: D 30%
Drafted: 1st rd. 1st overall 100%
Points per game: 0.63 96%
Criteria fit: 75%
Adjusted Calder probability: 13.26%
Calder odds: +650
Jack Quinn, BUF
Position: W 20%
Drafted: 1st rd. 8th overall 90%
Points per game: 64%
Criteria fit: 58%
Adjusted Calder probability: 6.13%
Calder odds: +1500
Lukas Reichel, CHI
Position: C 50%
Drafted: 1st rd. 17th overall 42%
Points per game: 0.13 1%
Criteria fit: 34%
Adjusted Calder probability: 1.24%
Calder odds: +8000
Kent Johnson, CBJ
Position: C 50%
Drafted: 1st rd. 5th overall 100%
Points per game: 0.29 34%
Criteria fit: 61%
Adjusted Calder probability: 7.13%
Calder odds: +1300
Marco Rossi, MIN
Position: C 50%
Drafted: 1st rd. 10th overall 72%
Points per game: 0.51 59%
Criteria fit: 60%
Adjusted Calder probability: 6.79%
Calder odds: +1400
Juraj Slafkovsky, MTL
Position: W 20%
Drafted: 1st. rd. 1st overall 100%
Points per game: 0.32 36%
Criteria fit: 52%
Adjusted Calder probability: 4.42%
Calder odds: +2200
Simon Nemec, NJD
Position: D 30%
Drafted: 1st rd. 2nd overall 100%
Points per game: 0.26 40%
Criteria fit: 57%
Adjusted Calder probability: 5.82%
Calder odds: +1600
Vitali Kravtsov, NYR
Position: W 20%
Drafted: 1st rd. 9th overall (+ some KHL success) 85%
Points per game: 0.29 34%
Criteria fit: 46%
Adjusted Calder probability: 3.06%
Calder odds: +3200
Jake Sanderson, OTT
Position: D 30%
Drafted: 1st rd. 5th overall 100%
Points per game: 0.38 57%
Criteria fit: 62%
Adjusted Calder probability: 7.49%
Calder odds: +1200
William Eklund, SJS
Position: C 50%
Drafted: 1st rd. 7th overall 100%
Points per game: 0.39 45%
Criteria fit: 65%
Adjusted Calder probability: 8.63%
Calder odds: +1100
Matty Beniers, SEA
Position: C 50%
Drafted: 1st rd. 2nd overall 100%
Points per game: 0.91 100%
Criteria fit: 83%
Adjusted Calder probability: 17.97%
Calder odds: +450
Shane Wright, SEA
Position: C 50%
Drafted: 1st rd. 4th overall 100%
Points per game: 0.57 66%
Criteria fit: 72%
Adjusted Calder probability: 11.73%
Calder odds: +750
Cole Perfetti, WPG
Position: C 50%
Drafted: 1st rd. 10th overall 72%
Points per game: 0.56 64%
Criteria fit: 62%
Adjusted Calder probability: 7.49%
Calder odds: +1200
Conclusion
We have four horses in the Calder race in Beniers (+450), Power (+650), Wright (+750), and McTavish (+900). Although a case could be made for Beniers and Wright stealing votes from each other being on the same team, it should be noted Moritz Seider won the Calder Trophy last season despite Lucas Raymond also finishing fourth in the voting. It may come down to who receives the most opportunity to play on the top line and powerplay unit for the Kraken as to who becomes the frontrunner for best rookie.
If you're a believer in the latest trend of defensemen winning the Calder (two of the last three seasons), then Power becomes the most likely to win, despite conceding nearly all prime powerplay time to Buffalo Sabres teammate Rasmus Dahlin. In case of an injury to Dahlin, or if Power plays his way into that role, he instantly becomes the obvious frontrunner as the 2021 1st overall pick.
McTavish will likely have to play a lot of wing this season if he's to receive quality even-strength minutes, due to Trevor Zegras and Ryan Strome solidified as the Ducks' top two centers. As history shows, this hurts his odds dramatically, so he might be a good one to lay off.
As far a longshot for the league's best rookie, Kravtsov fits a similar profile of a couple of former winners. He comes over from the KHL after a little success, although it's not quite the same as Artemi Panarin and Kirill Kaprizov. He is coming over at a younger age than both did, however, if he does capture a roster spot in training camp. Unlike Panarin and Kaprizov, Kravtsov's role with the New York Rangers is uncertain. There is a potential top-line wing spot available with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider, and if he can find a way into that role Kravtsov could have the point-per-game rate necessary for prime consideration.