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PuckLuck Primer 10/26/23: A Starting Goalie Focus

The one game yesterday was very kind to us, which was a nice way to decompress from the biggest night of NHL betting action likely ever. The Capitals are quickly becoming a model darling with them being overlooked in the general public for being a team that is still on the edge of playoff contention - even though they're aging.


Tonight we are back in the thick of things with 11 games, so what better way to prepare for it than goalie talk?


One of the major focuses of PuckLuck's prediction model is goaltending, and I believe we do it better than everybody else. Not only do we confirm who are the starting goalies for each NHL team each day, but we also are extremely accurate in projecting saves and exactly how a starting goaltender impacts the win probability of each team.


For example, if Joseph Woll is rolled out again tonight for the Toronto Maple Leafs, we can tell you it's about a 2% shift in win probability and the Leafs go from standard underdogs to slight underdogs based on his projection compared to Ilya Samsonov.


If we only factored in this season, it'd be an outrageous 14% shift between Woll and Samsonov. Our predictive metrics have a better read on how certain goalies have performed in the past and how likely similar goalies have varied historically. We also have a much greater sample size on Samsonov, so there's much less confidence in the projection of Woll.


All of this is factored into our suggested bet percentages, as our betting formula lowers the suggested bet amount for high-variance outcomes. It's all part of a safer and smarter betting experience.


Today's starting goalies are being announced as this is being written, so be sure to be glued to our Starting Goalies page for the most up to date goaltending news and our PuckLuck Picks page to see how this news affects our suggested bets of the night.


Let's get into today's projected goalies and coinciding betting edges:

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