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PuckLuck Primer 11/6/23: New Player Shot Data On Its Way

We had quite the weekend, especially if you date the "weekend" back to Friday night. All of our PuckLuck Picks netted you a total of 20.26 units, returning 37.88% on your investment. It's just yet another big winning chapter in the first 30 days of the season.


I can never get enough strings of success like that, and it's an inner-drive to always improve that has me focused on other ways we can exploit the sports betting market.


That, my friends, is where our brand new player shot data kicks in. For each player projected to play today, and each day of the season going forward, we'll be using the new model I developed to best predict a player's shots on goal.


If you're a follower of our very own D.J. Mitchell, you are very familiar with his player shot parlays and Underdog Fantasy entries. He currently uses a combination of recent shot and corsi data made available to him, and has had a lot of success with it.


Meanwhile, the PuckLuck player projection model gives just a standard projection adjusted for opponent, which fails to properly add context to a player's actual shot output.


How many "boom games" can Alex Ovechkin have where if we have him projected for 4.22 shots on goal and the sportsbook sets it at 4.5, it doesn't make sense to bet the under? We routinely see him go off for 6, 7, 8, 9, and even 10+ shots in games throughout the season.


It's that kind of analysis where a standard projection falls short on. It can be very misleading. That's where the new model comes in.


Let's use today as the example. Simulations are run for each player projected to play for the Blue Jackets, Panthers, Lightning, Maple Leafs, Bruins, Stars, Oilers, and Canucks. These sims are adjusted based on opponent, accounting for the necessary factors. Through these simulations, we can determine how many shots each player ended up with in each simulation.


Through our proprietary data, each player has an established normal distribution curve based on their previous shot history, which is fancy statistical lingo for a range of number of shots where a player usually ends up between. Because of this, these sims then can tell us the percentage of "boom" and "bust" games that fall above or below this range.


We can also see how today's game variables, such as opponent, factor into where the average projection leans. Also, we have direct over and under percentages (or "higher" and "lower" in the case of Underdog Fantasy), that we can compare directly to the sportsbook lines (or implied fantasy adjustments).


At some point this week, this data will all be on display on the site for all to access on a limited time basis. V.I.P. and Lucky Pucker subscribers will eventually have exclusive access to this material, so be sure to subscribe to one of these packages if you'd like to make some cash betting on shots or incorporating our shot analysis into your fantasy decisions.


I'm currently putting the finishing touches on the design and testing of what is just another major tool being added to the repertoire than no other website can offer you. With enough interest, I may even make this data downloadable. Keep an eye out this week for the launch of these pages.


With that said, we have a nice four-game slate on this NHL Monday, so let's get into today's edges:

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