Updated: Oct 4, 2022
Additions: David Krejci, Pavel Zacha, Vinni Lettieri, A.J. Greer, Keith Kinkaid
Subtractions: Erik Haula, Anton Blidh, Josh Brown
Aside from a Haula-for-Zacha swap, the Bruins' offseason was about whether familiar faces are returning and a slew of injury news. Team captain Patrice Bergeron is returning on a one-year team friendly deal, and former second line center David Krejci is reuniting with the club after spending last season in the Czech league.
Probable For Opener: Patrice Bergeron (Elbow), Mike Reilly (Ankle)
Questionable For Opener: -None-
Out To Begin Season: Matt Grzelcyk (Shoulder), Charlie McAvoy (Shoulder), Brad Marchand (Hip)
Out For Season: -None-
Of all the teams in the NHL, the injury news was most devasting for Boston. Star players Marchand and McAvoy aren't likely able to play until December, and the team's key offensive replacement on the backend for McAvoy - Grzelcyk - is also out at least a month after offseason surgery. Bergeron and Reilly were also dinged up, but are tracking to be ready as the season begins.
(league ranks in parentheses)
Jake DeBrusk - Patrice Bergeron - Craig Smith
Taylor Hall - David Krejci - David Pastrnak
Pavel Zacha - Charlie Coyle - Trent Frederic
Nick Foligno - Tomas Nosek - Chris Wagner
Derek Forbort - Hampus Lindholm
Mike Reilly - Brandon Carlo
Jakub Zboril - Connor Clifton
The Bruins' projected lineup for opening day is not nearly as attractive as their lineup will likely be throughout the season, with Marchand joining the top line and McAvoy and Grzelcyk returning to top-four roles on defense. Even accounting for man-games missed, this Boston roster ranks near the top of the league thanks to plenty of depth and overall strong defensive metrics.
Snipers: David Pastrnak
Playmakers: David Pastrnak | Patrice Bergeron | Taylor Hall
Volume Shooters: David Pastrnak | Patrice Bergeron | Jake DeBrusk | Brad Marchand | Craig Smith
Play-Drivers: Patrice Bergeron | Brad Marchand | Charlie McAvoy
Shutdown Defenders: Patrice Bergeron | Brad Marchand | Charlie McAvoy | Nick Foligno
Shot Blockers: -None-
Hitters: Nick Foligno
Enforcers: Nick Foligno | Trent Frederic
Penalty Drawers: Brad Marchand
PP Specialists: David Pastrnak | Patrice Bergeron | Brad Marchand
PK Specialists: -None-
Faceoff Specialists: Patrice Bergeron | Tomas Nosek
Studs: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron
Duds: Taylor Hall
Sleepers: Jeremy Swayman, Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy
Other Roster Worthy: Jake DeBrusk, David Krejci
While Pastrnak is an elite fantasy player and Bergeron should still continue as one of the better producers at his position, Boston also provides some nice fantasy sleepers this season. Swayman is projected to capture the majority of starts this season, and has the numbers to back it up. Also, due to the nature of their injuries, Marchand and McAvoy are slipping into the mid-rounds but provide fantasy points at an elite per-game level.
Hall will likely get drafted but does not provide the shooting metrics you'd want for his production to increase. DeBrusk - if he plays with Marchand and Bergeron - will be much more likely to help win you your league. Krejci will be a depth center that could benefit from Pastrnak's production at even-strength.
2022-2023 PuckLuck Projections
PuckLuck Projection: 111 points
Floor: 92 points Ceiling: 118 points
Projection Data Confidence: 77%
(League Average: 70%)
Stanley Cup: +250
President's Trophy: +300
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines:
Stanley Cup: +2800
President's Trophy: +6500
The model is much higher on Boston this season than the sportsbooks and betting public. This provides some advantages in futures bets, although it's important to note our projection of 111 points is really close to the projected ceiling of 118. There is a chance this team could end up shy of 100 points and miss the playoffs entirely.
The daily betting process should be fun early-on with the Bruins, as they will still be strong defensively but likely be underdogs while missing some key names. Unders could be the play as well, as Swayman has shown in his young career that he is capable of stealing games.
Division Projection: 1st
Conference Projection: 2nd
League Projection: 3rd
Again, we're higher on the Bruins than most as we expect a strong defensive season to compliment the offense they still have. Maybe we're underestimating the overall impact that missing Marchand and McAvoy will have, but when you're looking for advantages in the betting market it's projections like this that you lean on to fade the public.
Are they the sexiest play? No, but they're certainly capable of competing in perhaps the league's strongest division. With Toronto's goaltending up in the air, Florida trading two of their minutes leaders, and Tampa Bay also losing and missing key contributors the door is open for a surprise run to the top.