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Season Preview: Boston Bruins

Updated: Oct 4, 2022

Conference: Eastern

Division: Atlantic



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Offseason



Additions: David Krejci, Pavel Zacha, Vinni Lettieri, A.J. Greer, Keith Kinkaid

Subtractions: Erik Haula, Anton Blidh, Josh Brown


Aside from a Haula-for-Zacha swap, the Bruins' offseason was about whether familiar faces are returning and a slew of injury news. Team captain Patrice Bergeron is returning on a one-year team friendly deal, and former second line center David Krejci is reuniting with the club after spending last season in the Czech league.


 


Injury Report



Probable For Opener: Patrice Bergeron (Elbow), Mike Reilly (Ankle)

Questionable For Opener: -None-

Out To Begin Season: Matt Grzelcyk (Shoulder), Charlie McAvoy (Shoulder), Brad Marchand (Hip)

Out For Season: -None-


Of all the teams in the NHL, the injury news was most devasting for Boston. Star players Marchand and McAvoy aren't likely able to play until December, and the team's key offensive replacement on the backend for McAvoy - Grzelcyk - is also out at least a month after offseason surgery. Bergeron and Reilly were also dinged up, but are tracking to be ready as the season begins.


 

Projected Lineup

(league ranks in parentheses)



Forwards (2nd)

Jake DeBrusk - Patrice Bergeron - Craig Smith

Taylor Hall - David Krejci - David Pastrnak

Pavel Zacha - Charlie Coyle - Trent Frederic

Nick Foligno - Tomas Nosek - Chris Wagner


Defense (6th)

Derek Forbort - Hampus Lindholm

Mike Reilly - Brandon Carlo

Jakub Zboril - Connor Clifton


Goalies (9th)

Jeremy Swayman

Linus Ullmark


The Bruins' projected lineup for opening day is not nearly as attractive as their lineup will likely be throughout the season, with Marchand joining the top line and McAvoy and Grzelcyk returning to top-four roles on defense. Even accounting for man-games missed, this Boston roster ranks near the top of the league thanks to plenty of depth and overall strong defensive metrics.


 


Dynamic Players


Snipers: David Pastrnak

Playmakers: David Pastrnak | Patrice Bergeron | Taylor Hall

Volume Shooters: David Pastrnak | Patrice Bergeron | Jake DeBrusk | Brad Marchand | Craig Smith

Play-Drivers: Patrice Bergeron | Brad Marchand | Charlie McAvoy

Shutdown Defenders: Patrice Bergeron | Brad Marchand | Charlie McAvoy | Nick Foligno

Shot Blockers: -None-

Hitters: Nick Foligno

Enforcers: Nick Foligno | Trent Frederic

Penalty Drawers: Brad Marchand

PP Specialists: David Pastrnak | Patrice Bergeron | Brad Marchand

PK Specialists: -None-

Faceoff Specialists: Patrice Bergeron | Tomas Nosek


 


Fantasy Impact


Studs: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron

Duds: Taylor Hall

Sleepers: Jeremy Swayman, Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy

Other Roster Worthy: Jake DeBrusk, David Krejci


While Pastrnak is an elite fantasy player and Bergeron should still continue as one of the better producers at his position, Boston also provides some nice fantasy sleepers this season. Swayman is projected to capture the majority of starts this season, and has the numbers to back it up. Also, due to the nature of their injuries, Marchand and McAvoy are slipping into the mid-rounds but provide fantasy points at an elite per-game level.


Hall will likely get drafted but does not provide the shooting metrics you'd want for his production to increase. DeBrusk - if he plays with Marchand and Bergeron - will be much more likely to help win you your league. Krejci will be a depth center that could benefit from Pastrnak's production at even-strength.

2022-2023 PuckLuck Projections

PLAYER

POS

G

A

PTS

W

GA

SV

SO

David Pastrnak

F

47

47

94

Patrice Bergeron

F

37

43

80

Jake DeBrusk

F

30

30

60

Jeremy Swayman

G

31

117

1278

3

Brad Marchand

F

25

33

58

Taylor Hall

F

15

41

56

Charlie McAvoy

D

7

29

36


 


Betting Impact



PuckLuck Projection: 111 points

Floor: 92 points Ceiling: 118 points


Projection Data Confidence: 77%

(League Average: 70%)


PuckLuck Odds:

  • Stanley Cup: +250

  • President's Trophy: +300

  • Conference: +200

  • Division: +150

DraftKings Sportsbook Lines:

  • Stanley Cup: +2800

  • President's Trophy: +6500

  • Conference: +1300

  • Division: +1100

The model is much higher on Boston this season than the sportsbooks and betting public. This provides some advantages in futures bets, although it's important to note our projection of 111 points is really close to the projected ceiling of 118. There is a chance this team could end up shy of 100 points and miss the playoffs entirely.


The daily betting process should be fun early-on with the Bruins, as they will still be strong defensively but likely be underdogs while missing some key names. Unders could be the play as well, as Swayman has shown in his young career that he is capable of stealing games.


 


Season Outlook



Division Projection: 1st

Conference Projection: 2nd

League Projection: 3rd

Playoffs? Likely


Again, we're higher on the Bruins than most as we expect a strong defensive season to compliment the offense they still have. Maybe we're underestimating the overall impact that missing Marchand and McAvoy will have, but when you're looking for advantages in the betting market it's projections like this that you lean on to fade the public.


Are they the sexiest play? No, but they're certainly capable of competing in perhaps the league's strongest division. With Toronto's goaltending up in the air, Florida trading two of their minutes leaders, and Tampa Bay also losing and missing key contributors the door is open for a surprise run to the top.


Will the Boston Bruins make the playoffs this season?

  • Yes

  • No



 


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