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Season Preview: Pittsburgh Penguins

Conference: Eastern

Division: Metropolitan



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Offseason



Additions: Jeff Petry, Josh Archibald, Ty Smith, Jan Rutta, Ryan Poehling, Drake Caggiula, Dustin Tokarski

Subtractions: Evan Rodrigues, Mike Matheson, John Marino, Brian Boyle, Zach Aston-Reese, Dominik Simon, Louis Domingue


The big offseason moves for the Penguins were actually resigning aging stars Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. As far as roster changes, they also made interesting blueline swaps of Matheson for Petry and Marino for Smith. The jury is out on how significant these swaps will be, if at all, as the top-end talent of this team remaining intact should buy another year or two of being playoff contenders.


 


Injury Report



Probable For Opener: -None-

Questionable For Opener: -None-

Out To Begin Season: -None-

Out For Season: -None-


The Pittsburgh Penguins expect to be fully healthy come the start of the season.


 

Projected Lineup

(league ranks in parentheses)



Forwards (9th)

Jake Guentzel - Sidney Crosby - Bryan Rust

Jason Zucker - Evgeni Malkin - Rickard Rakell

Danton Heinen - Jeff Carter - Kasperi Kapanen

Brock McGinn - Teddy Blueger - Josh Archibald


Defense (5th)

Brian Dumoulin - Kris Letang

Marcus Pettersson - Jeff Petry

Ty Smith - Jan Rutta


Goalies (16th)

Tristan Jarry

Casey DeSmith


There's no doubt Pittsburgh has some big names throughout their lineup. The question will be how age plays a factor into these players' performances, if at all. Even after applying aging curves to these veterans, the Penguins still have the 9th and 5th best forward and defensive groups, respectively.


Tristan Jarry righted the ship last season after a poor '20-'21 season, which leaves him projecting towards the middle of the pack of the league. If he can build upon his strong season, it's possible he breaks the top-10 in goals saved above expected.


 


Dynamic Players


Snipers: -None-

Playmakers: Sidney Crosby | Josh Archibald

Volume Shooters: Jake Guentzel | Jason Zucker

Play-Drivers: Danton Heinen

Shutdown Defenders: Marcus Pettersson

Shot Blockers: Brian Dumoulin

Hitters: Josh Archibald

Enforcers: Josh Archibald

Penalty Drawers: Josh Archibald

PP Specialists: Jake Guentzel | Bryan Rust | Sidney Crosby | Evgeni Malkin

PK Specialists: -None-

Faceoff Specialists: Jeff Carter | Teddy Blueger


 


Fantasy Impact


Studs: Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby

Duds: -None-

Sleepers: -None-

Other Roster Worthy: Evgeni Malkin, Tristan Jarry


Predictable would be the word for what you're getting from Pittsburgh in terms of fantasy value. Draft anyone from the Crosby line. Draft Malkin for the powerplay value. Draft Letang for the obvious even-strength and powerplay correlation. Draft Jarry because the Penguins should win a bunch. Simple, easy, and effective.

2022-2023 PuckLuck Projections

PLAYER

POS

G

A

PTS

W

GA

SV

SO

Jake Guentzel

F

43

44

87

Bryan Rust

F

38

50

88

Kris Letang

D

13

55

68

Sidney Crosby

F

33

57

90

Evgeni Malkin

F

37

37

74

Tristan Jarry

G

33

153

1480

4

Jeff Petry

D

5

18

23


 


Betting Impact



PuckLuck Projection: 103 points

Floor: 85 points Ceiling: 112 points


Projection Data Confidence: 74%

(League Average: 70%)


PuckLuck Odds:

  • Stanley Cup: +460

  • President's Trophy: +600

  • Conference: +380

  • Division: +300

DraftKings Sportsbook Lines:

  • Stanley Cup: +2000

  • President's Trophy: +2200

  • Conference: +1000

  • Division: +320

We're currently a little higher on the Penguins than the sportsbooks and betting public, who likely don't see as much of a ceiling as the PuckLuck model does. When considering how Pittsburgh will fare, consider that last season they ran into a ton of injury trouble - including their top three goaltenders all being injured in the playoffs - and still forced a game seven to a team that went to the conference finals.


When healthy, the Penguins should be a fairly predictable team to bet on daily given their large sample size and minimal unknowns on their roster. This should allow you to bet on them in confidence if we find an edge in the betting lines.


 


Season Outlook



Division Projection: 4th

Conference Projection: 6th

League Projection: 10th

Playoffs? Likely


The Penguins are gearing up for another run at the Cup and we like their chances to get in the dance. They do have a tough path given their division and conference but still project as a top 10 NHL team this season.


If their forward and defensive depth can contribute, they should be a real fun team to watch this season.


Will the Pittsburgh Penguins make the playoffs?

  • Yes

  • No



 


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