Between the Lines: October 20, 2025 NHL Betting Picks & Projections
- Jason Moser
- Oct 20
- 7 min read
Monday's 5-game slate features Kaprizov's Wild @ Shesterkin's Rangers on NHLN, with Buffalo showing massive edge in Montreal.
Monday delivers a focused 5-game NHL card headlined by Minnesota's newly-minted richest player in hockey history visiting Madison Square Garden to face Igor Shesterkin. Our model has identified a stunning edge on Buffalo as road underdogs in Montreal - the largest moneyline value on tonight's slate. With Kirill Kaprizov riding a power-play scoring tear (4 goals, all with the man advantage) and two OVER opportunities showing double-digit edges, Monday's compact card rewards disciplined betting over volume chasing.
Today's Action: 5-Game Monday Slate
Evening Start (7:00 PM ET):
MIN @ NYR (NHLN) - Kaprizov's record contract meets Shesterkin's elite netminding
SEA @ PHI - Kraken continue road trip in Philadelphia
BUF @ MTL (7:30 PM ET) - Sabres show massive underdog value
Late Window:
9:30 PM ET: WPG @ CGY - Jets visit Flames in Western Canada
10:00 PM ET: CAR @ VGK - Hurricanes face Golden Knights in Vegas
Key Factors:
Kirill Kaprizov signed richest contract in NHL history ($136M/8 years, $17M AAV)
Kaprizov has 4 goals in 4 games - ALL on power play - showing elite special teams dominance
Buffalo projects 61.0% win probability despite +124 underdog status (16.36% edge)
Minnesota @ Rangers OVER projects 6.25 goals vs. 5.5 line (13.64% edge on NHLN)
No teams on back-to-backs tonight—fresh legs across entire slate
Game of the Night: MINNESOTA @ NY RANGERS (NHLN)
The Setup:
The only nationally televised game on Monday brings Minnesota's record-breaking star to Broadway. Kirill Kaprizov just signed the richest contract in NHL history - eight years, $136 million - making him hockey's highest-paid player at $17M AAV. He faces Igor Shesterkin, who himself is seeking a massive extension with the Rangers. Filip Gustavsson projects in net for Minnesota against Shesterkin in a premier goaltending matchup that NHL Network viewers won't want to miss.
PuckLuck Projection:MIN: 2.98 goals | NYR: 3.27 goals
Projected Total: 6.25
The books have Rangers as -135 home favorites, implying a 57.4% win probability. Our model projects 62.9%. The 5.5 percentage point gap suggests New York is rightfully favored but slightly undervalued. Minnesota at +114 carries some value for contrarians, but the real opportunity sits on the total.
The Storyline:
Kaprizov enters having scored 4 goals in 4 games this season. Remarkably, ALL of those goals have come on the power play. He's wasting no time proving Minnesota's historic investment was justified, operating as the engine of the NHL's most lethal special teams unit (38.5% power-play conversion through early games). The Wild haven't scored at 5-on-5 much in recent contests, making them power-play dependent. Rangers counter with elite two-way structure and Shesterkin's Vezina-caliber goaltending.
The Total Play:
Our projection of 6.25 goals sits 0.75 above the Vegas total of 5.5 - a 13.64% edge that creates significant OVER value. At -110, NHL Network viewers get near even-money on a total that projects for consistent scoring. Both teams generate power-play opportunities, and while Shesterkin is elite, Minnesota's man-advantage is nearly unstoppable.
Want to see where our model finds the strongest edges tonight? 👇
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