3 Make-or-Break Storylines That Will Define the Buffalo Sabres' 2025-26 Season | A Preview
- Jason Moser
- Oct 9
- 9 min read
Fourteen years. That's 5,110 days since the Buffalo Sabres last played a meaningful game in April. 5,110 days of false hope, broken promises, and "next year becoming a cruel joke. 5,110 days of watching other fanbases celebrate while KeyBank Center empties out in March. Tonight, it starts again.
As the puck drops on the 2025-26 season against the New York Rangers, three storylines will determine whether this is the year Buffalo finally breaks through. That, or we're about to watch the NHL's most embarrassing record extend to 15 years.
There's no more room for moral victories. No more "we're close" or "internal growth". No more excuses.
The goaltending situation is a disaster before the season even begins. The GM and coach are fighting for their professional lives. And the weight of 14 years of failure hangs over every shift, every save, every decision.
This isn't a 2025-26 Buffalo Sabres season preview. This is a reckoning.
Here's what actually matters.
Storyline 1: The Goaltending Crisis - Can Anyone Save Buffalo's Season?
How did we get here?
The Sabres had it solved. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, their wavering 2nd round draft pick from 2017, had finally developed into the goaltender the organization had hoped. In 2023-24, Luukkonen posted a career-best .910 save percentage, earning a five-year, $23.75 million extension.
It was a quick rise to the top for the Finnish netminder. As with anything built up quickly, foundational concerns can lead to a sudden collapse.
Luukkonen finished 63rd of 73 goalies with at least 10 games played in goals saved above expected, with -8.77 per Evolving-Hockey. His .887 save percentage was a career low, despite garnering 55 starts to course-correct. All thoughts of a turnaround in the upcoming season have halted with the news of compounding injuries. Buffalo's starting goalie tweaked something over the summer, deemed a lower-body injury of little concern. The Sabres rested Luukkonen throughout the majority of training camp and preseason action to give him time to recover.
When he was finally deemed healthy enough to play, Luukkonen only lasted 20 minutes. The Finnish goalie was pulled after one period of action with a different lower-body injury - one that landed him on injured reserve.
With a real possibility of Luukkonen missing significant time this season, the Sabres will have to rely on one of their other goaltending options to try to provide a steady presence in the crease.
The Current Reality: Opening Night Without Your Starter
First crack at replacing Luukkonen goes to newcomer Alex Lyon. Lyon is no stranger to filling in in a pinch, as he has performed admirably for stretches with the Philadelphia Flyers, Florida Panthers, and, most recently, the Detroit Red Wings.
With a career .902 save percentage, the former Yale product has proven he belongs in the NHL. Belonging and starting consistently are two very different things, and Lyon will have to bounce back from a sub-.900 save percentage from last season himself. A 5.59 goals saved above expected despite the poor save rate is an encouraging sign, should Buffalo provide an improved defensive environment in front of him.
The emergency signing upon the original Luukkonen injury news was former Colorado Avalanche stalwart Alexandar Georgiev. Georgiev posted the worst save percentage of any primary goalie in the NHL last season and went unsigned until training camp. He has already fallen out of favor with the Sabres, landing on waivers.
Georgiev's waiver bid was made possible by the Sabres jumping on another netminder via the waiver wire - 26-year-old Colten Ellis. Ellis fell victim to a numbers game in St. Louis, with incumbent Jordan Binnington and quality backup Joel Hofer holding down NHL spots. This made Ellis - one of the AHL's top goalies last season - available for Buffalo to claim.
Ellis will begin the season as the Sabres' backup despite having no prior NHL experience.
The Sabres do have one other player between the pipes with NHL experience - the seemingly forgotten top prospect Devon Levi. Like Ellis, Levi thrived in the AHL last season. Buffalo seems content with letting the 23-year-old marinate in a developmental atmosphere to ward off the disappointment from his prior NHL stints.
With Levi staying in Rochester, one major question looms - can a Lyon/Ellis/Georgiev trio carry a team to 90+ points?
Why This Matters More Than Anything Else
Nothing can sink a team faster than poor goaltending. It can deflate a team in high moments. It can bury a team in low ones.
Last season, the Sabres missed the playoffs by 12 points. Average goaltending could've made up over half of that deficit. Combine that with a better showing on special teams, and Buffalo may have had a realistic shot at qualifying for the postseason.
The Sabres are no strangers to scoring, but they can't afford to have that success negated by poor play between the pipes. Consistent elite goaltending has not hit the organization since Ryan Miller was traded over a decade ago. Even average goaltending has been elusive. If Lyon falters and Luukkonen doesn't return to 2023-24 form by December, this season is cooked.
PuckLuck's Take
With the timeline for Luukkonen's return uncertain, it's tough to project exactly how the goaltending situation will unfold. What PuckLuck can project is the performance of each goaltender in an isolated, equal game environment.
For this, projected GSAx (goals saved above expected) is the most predictive stat. Notably, Lyon projects better than Luukkonen this coming season. Lyon has a projected GSAx per 60 minutes of 0.18 goals above expected, meaning he should steal the Sabres an extra goal every fifth game or so. This usurps Luukkonen's league-average projection of 0 GSAx per 60.
Georgiev also projects better than last season, coming over from San Jose into an environment that should be much better defensively. Buffalo's offseason acquisitions and departures were made set on improving the team's defensive play.
Levi does not project nearly as well as the others, which is why the Sabres' brass are likely content with "redshirting" the prospect for another season.
Ellis does not have any NHL data to draw from. This causes his projection to be based on rookie replacement-level values adjusted for Buffalo's projected goalie environment. While he has found success in the minors, that does not always translate to the NHL.
The projected numbers for Lyon and Luukkonen are playoff-caliber when combined with high-end scoring. The volatility of their projection, though, does not ooze confidence. If the struggles persist, the Sabres will need to make a goaltending trade by the deadline to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Storyline 2: Kevyn Adams' Last Stand - Is This the End for Buffalo's GM?
The Hot Seat Is Real
It's year six for Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams, and year six of no playoffs. With Adams heading into the presumed final year of his contract, he is undoubtedly on the hot seat.
Adams, when approached about the topic, said, "We've got to win hockey games...we need to win. And I'm fully aware of that." Winning hockey games is the currency Adams needs to bail himself out of the debt he's created in fans' minds. The palm tree jokes are only the start of what could become a real ugly scene at KeyBank Center if the Sabres stumble out of the gate.
And, to be frank, deservedly so. While Adams is a member of owner Terry Pegula's circle of trust, most GMs don't get six years without a single playoff appearance. He's stood on his hands and preached patience, but you can only improve so much internally.
Something has to change. If it's not the team's success and it's not the players, then Adams is next in line.
The Offseason That Wasn't
Adams made a few moves this offseason. He traded one of the top offensive producers on the team, JJ Peterka, for help defensively throughout the lineup in forward Josh Doan and defenseman Michael Kesselring. He signed Lyon as a backup who is now thrust into the starting role. Justin Danforth and Conor Timmins are quality edge-of-the-lineup pieces.
But where is the needle mover?
After all, is the goal to finally limp into the playoffs? Or is the reason for the existence of this franchise to win a Stanley Cup, as Pegula once eloquently put it?
Let's face it - Adams is betting on internal development again. It's a recipe that has consistently failed in the past.
Statements like "if Jack Quinn reverts to his previous form" and "if the power play can miraculously improve" are things that the GM is leaning on this season. That's the real joke, Kevyn, not the inflatable palm trees.
How many times can you trust internal improvement before it becomes negligence?
What Happens If The Fail Again?
While Pegula has displayed his trust, the ownership's patience is wearing thin. There's a reason Adams and head coach Lindy Ruff's contracts have yet to be renewed. This is a make-or-break year for the current organizational leaders.
Adams has to be aggressive early if there are any signs of flatlining. Whether that's with the coach, the goaltending, or any other area, the team deficiencies must be addressed immediately. There is no time to wait.
The Bottom Line
Adams' job security is tied directly to wins. If they're out of the playoff picture by Christmas, you can expect changes. There's a qualified GM on staff in Jarmo Kekalainen. Some external candidates are knocking on the door.
This isn't just about the GM; it's about organizational accountability.
Storyline 3: The 14-Year Playoff Drought - Break It or Blow It Up?
The Weight of History
The Sabres hold an NHL record - 14 consecutive years without playoffs. No exactly the kind of record fans are hoping for. The drought is not only historically bad in its sport - it's the longest in North American pro sports.
The last playoff appearance was in 2011. Zach Benson, now heading into his third NHL season, was five years old when Buffalo last made the postseason.
It's been 5,110 days of failure. 5,110 days in the process of isolating a fanbase.
The "We're Close" Delusion
Every single GM since 2011 has, in one form or another, said "we're close" or preached a "process". Five players scored 20 or more goals last season, so why did the Sabres miss the playoffs by 12 points?
It's the problems that stats do not show, such as inconsistency, poor special teams coaching, identifying quality goaltending, and leadership and culture issues.
This is embedded in the everyday inner workings within the team. Until something drastic is done, none of that will change.
Is This Roster Actually Good Enough?
The Sabres boast elite talent, especially at even-strength. Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch are 90th percentile performers at five-on-five. Josh Norris showed in the preseason just how valuable he can be in all aspects of the game. The forward depth is the best it's been in years, considering how well-rounded the group is. Players like Benson, Ryan McLeod, Josh Doan, and Jason Zucker bring quality two-way elements to the team. Jiri Kulich is on the rise. Jordan Greenway, when healthy, bolsters the bottom-six defensively.
The defense position group is among the league's elite on paper. Dahlin and Bowen Byram are a top-tier defense pair. Kesselring appears to be the perfect partner for Owen Power. Timmins and Mattias Samuelsson are bottom-pair defenseman who have taken on larger roles when necessary.
Still, the goaltending issue looms. The Sabres need improvement from their homegrown talent, such as Power and Jack Quinn. Depth scoring can become an issue, as it was sacrificed for defensive improvement.
And then there are the special teams units, which seem to rely on one guy - Josh Norris - to solve both the power play and penalty kill. There are still way too many question marks, and this is before the rigors of the season. Imagine if a key injury occurs...
What Happens If They Miss Again?
Should the Sabres extend the drought to 15 seasons, a complete organizational overhaul seems inevitable. Kevyn Adams will be gone. Lindy Ruff will likely be right there with him.
Could a shakeup to the core occur? It's certainly possible, as the Sabres will need to reshuffle the deck to find the right assets to help the team. At this point, another mention of the term "rebuild" would send Sabres fans into a frenzy. Those who are left, anyway.
The good news is, there's a long season to go and a fresh slate to rewrite the story. The Sabres have a realistic chance at making the playoffs this season. It will take a lot to go right, but there's a chance. And that's the problem.
The Preview of an Important Buffalo Sabres 2025-26 Season
This is the most important season in franchise modern history. The fate of the GM and head coach hangs in the balance. Miss again, and the rebuild starts over yet again with new drivers behind the wheel. Make it, and the narrative completely flips. One thing can be said with certainty - fourteen years ends starting tonight...or until it becomes fifteen.
The Verdict: Hope or More Heartbreak?
These three storylines aren't isolated issues. They're interconnected threads that will unravel or weave together over the next six months. If Luukkonen returns healthy and elite, Adams' patient approach looks vindicated. If the goaltending collapses, the 14-year drought becomes 15, and heads will roll.
Buffalo has talent. That's not the question. The question is whether they have the goaltending, the leadership, and the organizational competence to finally break through. Or whether we're about to watch the same movie we've seen 14 times before.
Tonight's opener against the Rangers won't answer everything. But it's the first data point. The first test. The first chance to prove that this year is different. Puck drops at 7:00 PM ET.
PuckLuck will be tracking every shift, every save, every decision.
Stay tuned throughout the day as we break down:
The complete opening night roster, line combinations, and player projections.
Our full season projection, playoff odds, and value bets.
Follow @PuckLuckJay on X for live analysis during tonight's game.
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