Clock Has Run Out on Sabres' First-Round Prospect | Ryan Johnson Sent to AHL Rochester

The Buffalo Sabres assigned defenseman Ryan Johnson to AHL-affiliate Rochester Americans on Thursday.

Like one of those trendy large wall clocks, the writing is on the wall. The clock has struck midnight on Sabres prospect Ryan Johnson, whose odds of panning out in the NHL have - fittingly for the season - turned into a pumpkin.

Ryan Johnson's Development

Johnson's development was no Cinderella story, however. The former, first round, 31st overall draft selection by Buffalo was expected to take the long route to the NHL. Drafted out of Sioux Falls of the USHL, Johnson predictably spent all four years following his draft year in college at Minnesota. Scouts raved about Johnson's skating and active stick while defending, but the California product was never one to jump off the page with his point production or physicality. And this has restricted his upside as an NHL prospect. Johnson's path to cracking the Buffalo Sabres lineup was by killing it with consistency. If he could prove to be a reliable defender, there was potential for the smooth-skating product to be a complementary top-4 piece on the blueline. Instead, Johnson finds himself demoted to Rochester for the fifth time in his short professional career. This was a now-or-never year. Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson, drafted the year prior to Johnson, are key pieces of the Sabres' defense and leadership. Dylan Cozens - drafted in the same round and draft as Ryan Johnson - has fully developed and was traded for a top-line center. Other players who have contributed to the Sabres who were drafted after Johnson include Jack Quinn, JJ Peterka, Owen Power, Tyson Kozak, Jiri Kulich, and Zach Benson. Related: 3 Make-or-Break Storylines That Will Define the Buffalo Sabres Now, Ryan Johnson will join 2025 first-round selection Radim Mrtka in Rochester - a player drafted six years after him.

Historical Comparisons to Ryan Johnson's NHL Prospects

Johnson has yet to hit 50 games played in the NHL, despite playing 41 games in his rookie debut season in 2023-2024. That's important to note, because there are only 20 defensemen who didn't appear in 50 NHL games by age 24 who went on to average significant minutes in at least 200 games. The following players qualify as exceptions to the rule:

• Alex Carrier

• Alexei Emelin

• Artem Zub

• Ben Chiarot

• Brian Dumoulin

• Derek Forbort

• Devon Toews

• Erik Gustafsson

• Jacob Middleton

• Jake Walman

• Jani Hakanpaa

• Justin Holl

• Kevan Miller

• Matt Roy

• Nick Jensen

• Nikita Zaitsev

• Niko Mikkola

• Ryan Graves

• Scott Mayfield

• Thomas Hickey

As with most exceptions to the rule, there were special circumstances surrounding most of these players. Emelin, Zub, and Zaitsev played in the KHL well into their 20s. Gustafsson was a Swedish league product, while Hakanpaa and Mikkola were LIIGA contributors in Finland.

Carrier, Chiarot, Middleton, Graves, and Hickey were rare Canadian Junior prospects who turned into full-time NHLers after an extended stay in the AHL. The profile of these types of defensemen - big, stay-at-home - doesn't quite match Ryan Johnson's. The rest are all 4-year college products, which should come as no surprise, given that a college hockey graduate is generally 22 years old. Of these players, only one - Derek Forbort - was a first-round draft pick. Forbort spent the majority of three seasons in the AHL before becoming a full-time NHL player. Dumoulin, Walman, Holl, Miller, Roy, Jensen, and Mayfield all trended up in NHL appearances in the seasons after college before latching on as supporting NHL defensemen. Johnson is trending in the opposite direction. The best player on this list is Devon Toews, who did not appear in an NHL game before the age of 24. Toews took a unique route in his development path to the league, starting in the British Columbia Hockey League - an independent Canadian Junior league. This allowed him to maintain NCAA eligibility, as he played three seasons at Quinnipiac after his two in the BCHL. Toews then spent his entire age 22 and 23 seasons in AHL Bridgeport, before debuting with the New York Islanders in 2018-2019. His rise as an elite defenseman didn't occur until he played next to Cale Makar, offering a perfect complementary skillset to the Colorado Avalanche superstar. 270 defensemen in the last 15 seasons failed to play 50 games by their age-24 season and continue to appear in the NHL. 20 of them - or 7% of those 270 - went on to become meaningful contributors. That gives Ryan Johnson a 93% bust probability.

Season Projections: How Many Points Will Ryan Johnson Tally This Season?

How Ryan Johnson Can Buck the Trend

The cold, hard truth is, Ryan Johnson has to be dominant at everything he does in the AHL from here on out. His 13 points in 66 games in Rochester last season aren't going to cut it. Johnson has to show that he can produce at a half-point per game level in the AHL, which translates to about 20 points in the NHL.

At this point in his career, Johnson should be a play-driver for the Amerks, controlling puck possesion and displaying a good first pass out of the defensive zone to complement his elite skating in transition. Until he can dominate those aspects of the game against lower competition, there will be younger, flashier prospects more worthy of a shot in the NHL.

The issue is that the Americans already roster those younger, flashier prospects in Mrtka, Nikita Novikov, and Vsevolod Komarov. Novikov, like Johnson, shoots left-handed. There are two other left-shot defensemen in Rochester who both have NHL experience - Zac Jones and Jack Rathbone. This puts Johnson in a mix of players in similar situations who are competing for playing time in the AHL, let alone the NHL.

It will be tough for Johnson to stand out, given the competition and his skillset. He did initially make the Sabres' roster over those players, though, so there is a chance he becomes the go-to player on the backend in Rochester. If he can establish himself as such, then the hope for an NHL future remains.

The Bottom Line on Ryan Johnson's Demotion From Sabres to AHL

The latest demotion to the AHL seems to be the dagger in Johnson's prospects as a top-4 NHL defenseman. Sure, this can be a temporary move in a numbers game, as Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson, Bowen Byram, and Jacob Bryson are left-handed defensemen on one-way contracts ahead of him on the depth chart. Still, Johnson failed to outplay any of those players to force the organization's hand at keeping him aboard. The Verdict: Ryan Johnson is a fringe NHLer at best, with bottom-pair upside. Do you agree with this verdict? Comment your thoughts below 👇