Between the Lines: NHL Betting Picks & Projections | October 13, 2025
- Jason Moser
- Oct 13
- 8 min read
Canadian Thanksgiving brings a 10-game matinee marathon, and PuckLuck's model is spotting value all afternoon.
Today's massive slate features six underdog ML plays, three OVER opportunities, and a historically significant matchup in Washington. Our projections have identified meaningful edges across multiple markets, with several afternoon games showing premium value before the books adjust.
Today's Action: 10-Game Canadian Thanksgiving Slate
EARLY WINDOW:
12:30 PM ET: COL @ BUF - Avalanche face battered Sabres
1:00 PM ET: TBL @ BOS - Lightning seek first win after 0-2 start
1:00 PM ET: WPG @ NYI - Jets face Islanders on Long Island
1:00 PM ET: NSH @ OTT - Predators travel to Canadian capital
2:00 PM ET: DET @ TOR - Original Six rivalry moved up to 2 PM local
EVENING WINDOW:
7:00 PM ET: NJD @ CBJ - Devils visit Columbus
7:00 PM ET: FLA @ PHI - Defending champs in Philadelphia
7:30 PM ET: STL @ VAN - Blues continue West Coast trip
8:00 PM ET: LAK @ MIN - Kings face surging Wild
8:30 PM ET: UTA @ CHI - Mammoth face winless Blackhawks
Key Factors:
Avalanche in potential Eastern time trap game
Lightning desperate for first win after home losses
Ovechkin watch continues (needs 3 for 900)
Six teams on home ice with rest advantage
Multiple Western teams finishing road trips
Game of the Day: TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON
The Setup: The Lightning are reeling after dropping their first two games at home by a combined 10-7, getting outplayed in special teams and struggling with defensive structure. Boston provides no relief as they've won their opener and have been dominant at TD Garden to start the season. But here's what the market is missing: Tampa's underlying numbers are actually solid, they're getting quality chances, and variance has killed them early.
PuckLuck Projection: TBL: 3.46 goals | BOS: 3.02 goals
Projected Total: 6.48
The books have Tampa as road underdogs, but our model sees a Lightning team due for positive regression. Their expected goals differential suggests they've been unlucky, and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is historically elite in bounce-back spots. Boston's defensive metrics are actually weaker than their 3-0 record suggests.
The Storyline: Tampa Bay enters having lost their first two games of the season at home by a combined score of 10-7, but context matters. Both losses came against quality opponents, and the Lightning generated high-danger chances at an elite rate. Vasilevskiy has been the victim of defensive breakdowns rather than poor play himself.
Meanwhile, Boston's latest win came against a struggling Buffalo Sabres squad. Their even-strength metrics show vulnerability, particularly in transition defense. Where Tampa excels is with their speed through the neutral zone.
Want to know where the edge is tonight? 👇 Enjoy a 7-day FREE TRIAL to PuckLuck+ starting today (October 13, 2025) for all NHL betting picks and analysis
