Between the Lines: October 14, 2025 NHL Betting Picks & Projections
- Jason Moser
- Oct 14
- 10 min read
Ovechkin's 900-goal chase headlines an 8-game Tuesday slate loaded with ESPN primetime action and a highly anticipated NHL debut.
Tonight's lineup features two ESPN broadcasts, multiple milestone watches, and PuckLuck's model identifying significant edges across the board. With back-to-back situations, goalie advantages, and high-scoring environments in play, we've isolated several premium betting opportunities that the market is mispricing.
Today's Action: 8-Game Tuesday Slate
EARLY WINDOW:
7:00 PM ET: SEA @ MTL - Kraken visit Canadiens at Bell Centre
7:00 PM ET: EDM @ NYR - Oilers bring McDavid to MSG
7:00 PM ET: NSH @ TOR - Double back-to-back situation in Toronto
7:00 PM ET: TBL @ WSH - Ovechkin 900 watch as Lightning visit (ESPN)
LATE WINDOW:
9:00 PM ET: VGK @ CGY - Golden Knights continue Canada road trip
9:30 PM ET: MIN @ DAL - Wild's hot start faces Stars test (ESPN)
10:00 PM ET: CAR @ SJ - Michael Misa makes NHL debut for Sharks
10:30 PM ET: PIT @ ANA - Penguins close out West Coast swing
Key Factors:
Alex Ovechkin needs 3 goals to reach 900 career goals
Michael Misa (No. 2 pick, 2025 Draft) makes NHL debut for Sharks
Nikita Kucherov needs 4 points to reach 1,000 career points
Tampa Bay on back-to-back after yesterday's game vs Boston
Nashville & Toronto both playing second game in 24 hours
Multiple goalie advantages with confirmed starters
Game of the Day: TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON
The Setup: The storyline is simple: Alex Ovechkin needs three goals to become the first player in NHL history to score 900. The emotion, the crowd, the moment - it's all set for Capital One Arena on Tuesday night. But here's what the market is missing: Tampa Bay is on a brutal back-to-back after traveling from Boston, and Washington's underlying metrics suggest they're due for positive offensive regression.
PuckLuck Projection: TBL: 2.66 goals | WSH: 3.57 goals
Projected Total: 6.23
The books have set the total at 5.5 with the OVER juiced at -130. Our model projects 6.23 goals and gives Washington a 62.1% win probability despite Vegas having them at -112 (just 52.8% implied). This is a classic spot where narrative and value intersect.
The Storyline: Andrei Vasilevskiy is confirmed in net for Tampa Bay after Jonas Johansson played in Boston. The Lightning are now 1-2-0 to start the season, and fatigue is real on a back-to-back. Washington counters with Logan Thompson projected to start, and the Capitals' offense has been generating high-danger chances at an elite rate despite Ovechkin not yet scoring this season.
With the entire arena chanting for goal No. 898, 899, and potentially 900, the emotional energy will be palpable. Tampa's defense is slow, and the Capitals, feeding off the energy from the home crowd, could break this one open in transition.
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