Between the Lines: October 16, 2025 NHL Betting Picks & Projections | McDavid vs Schaefer ESPN+
- Jason Moser
- Oct 16
- 7 min read
McDavid and Schaefer, two No. 1 picks separated by a decade, face off in Thursday's featured matchup.
Tonight's 11-game slate offers multiple opportunities to exploit market inefficiencies, with our model identifying several spots where the books appear to have significantly mispriced probabilities. We've found a massive 11% edge on a home underdog, plus multiple OVER plays where our projections exceed totals by nearly a full goal. The McDavid-Schaefer showdown on ESPN+ headlines the action with a high-confidence OVER opportunity.
Today's Action: 11-Game Thursday Slate
7:00 PM ET:
COL @ CBJ - Avalanche visit Columbus
NSH @ MTL - Predators face Canadiens
FLA @ NJ - Panthers on B2B visit Devils
SEA @ OTT - Kraken face Senators on B2B
WPG @ PHI - Jets visit Flyers
NYR @ TOR - Rangers-Leafs Original Six matchup
7:30 PM ET:
EDM @ NYI - McDavid vs Schaefer spotlight (ESPN+)
8:00 PM ET:
VAN @ DAL - Canucks visit undefeated Stars
10:00 PM ET:
CAR @ ANA - Hurricanes visit Ducks
PIT @ LAK - Penguins face Kings
BOS @ VGK - Bruins visit Golden Knights
Key Factors:
Matthew Schaefer (No. 1 pick, 2025 Draft) has points in first 3 games; Islanders seeking first win (0-3-0)
Connor McDavid hit 24.41 mph—fastest skating speed in NHL EDGE tracking era
Stuart Skinner recorded shutout vs Rangers Tuesday; 8th career shutout
Igor Shesterkin boasts .972 save percentage through 4 games (2-2-0 record)
Florida on back-to-back after Wednesday's game vs Detroit
Dallas Stars undefeated (3-0-0); trying for 4th consecutive win to start season
Game of the Night: EDMONTON @ NY ISLANDERS (ESPN+)
The Setup:
Two generational No. 1 overall picks meet for the first time—Connor McDavid (2015) and Matthew Schaefer (2025). The Oilers arrive riding momentum from a 2-0 shutout win over the Rangers, while the Islanders are desperate for their first victory after starting 0-3-0. Our model projects this as a high-scoring affair with a 15.6% edge on the OVER, acting as the highest-confidence play on tonight's slate.
PuckLuck Projection:
EDM: 3.23 goals | NYI: 3.13 goals
Projected Total: 6.36
The books have set this total at 5.5 with juice on the OVER at -135. Our projection of 6.36 goals represents a meaningful 0.86 goal gap, and with a confidence rating of 60.69% - the highest on tonight's slate - this appears to be our strongest edge opportunity. The Islanders have allowed 4.3 goals per game through three contests, suggesting defensive structure issues that Edmonton's elite offensive talent should exploit.
The Storyline:
Stuart Skinner is likely in net after his stellar shutout performance Tuesday. David Rittich is confirmed for the Islanders, and while serviceable, he has yet to play a game this season. The volume of high-danger chances he's expected to face suggests the layoff could be a factor early in the game.
McDavid reached 24.41 mph in the season opener—the fastest skating speed recorded in the NHL EDGE tracking era. That speed creates breakaway opportunities and odd-man rushes that stress defensive systems. Meanwhile, Schaefer has impressed with 3 points in 3 games, and Mathew Barzal continues to generate offensive chances despite the Islanders' poor results.
Both teams should get multiple power play opportunities. Edmonton's converting at 22% this season, and the Islanders' penalty kill has been vulnerable at 70%. With special teams in play and two teams capable of trading chances, this game projects to exceed the posted total.
Want to see where else we've found significant edges tonight? 👇
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