Between the Lines: October 17, 2025 NHL Betting Picks & Projections | Sharks-Mammoth ESPN+
- Jason Moser
- Oct 17
- 7 min read
Friday's 4-game slate features Sharks-Mammoth on ESPN+ and a Wild-Capitals matchup with exploitable market inefficiencies.
Tonight's compact Friday slate presents concentrated betting opportunities where our model has identified significant edges. We've found double-digit value on both the moneyline and total in the same game, plus a back-to-back situation creating plus-money value on a home underdog. With just four games on the board, quality trumps quantity - and our projections suggest the books have mispriced multiple spots on this card.
Today's Action: 4-Game Friday Slate
7:00 PM ET:
TBL @ DET - Lightning visit Red Wings
MIN @ WSH - Wild face Capitals in D.C.
8:30 PM ET:
VAN @ CHI - Canucks on B2B visit Blackhawks
9:00 PM ET:
SJ @ UTA - Sharks visit Mammoth (ESPN+)
Key Factors:
Kirill Kaprizov signed record $136M extension (richest in NHL history)
Wild are 7-0-1 in last 8 games vs Capitals despite being underdogs
Kaprizov has 9 points in 4 games; Matt Boldy combining for 7 power-play goals
Vancouver playing second game in 24 hours after yesterday's contest
San Jose and Utah both seeking consistency in early season
Washington riding 3-game win streak after opening loss
Game of the Night: SAN JOSE @ UTAH (ESPN+)
The Setup:
The only nationally televised game tonight features two teams still finding their identity in the young season. Utah Mammoth looks to establish home ice dominance in their second season, while San Jose continues to integrate their young core led by Macklin Celebrini and newly debuted Michael Misa. Our model sees this as a tighter contest than the -265 line suggests.
PuckLuck Projection:SJ: 2.79 goals | UTA: 3.34 goals
Projected Total: 6.13
The books have Utah as heavy favorites at -265, implying a 72.6% win probability. Our model projects 60.9% - an 11.7% gap where the market may be overvaluing Utah's home ice advantage. San Jose at +215 represents potential value for those willing to take a shot on the road underdog, though our confidence in this projection is lower given the limited track record of both rosters.
The Storyline:
Karel Vejmelka is projected in net for Utah, facing a young Sharks team that generates chances but struggles to finish. Alex Nedeljkovic gets the nod for San Jose. He's been inconsistent but capable of stealing games when locked in. The Mammoth's home crowd creates energy, but the Sharks have enough skill to keep this competitive.
This game projects close to the 6.5 total, with our model showing 6.13 goals. The UNDER might have merit, but with two teams still establishing defensive identity, we're staying away from the total here. The value, if any, sits on San Jose's moneyline at +215 for those seeking high-risk, high-reward plays.
Want to see where our model finds the strongest edges tonight? 👇
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